The clock may be running out on Kinder Morgan. It's too bad, a solution may be near. British Columbians are increasingly uncomfortable with Premier John Horgan's stance and seem to be looking for a way out. But so far, no one is helping them find it. Why not?Looked at through an engagement lens, Trans Mountain is a remarkable tale of government/citizen disconnect – and a valuable teaching moment. Let's start with former BC Premier Christy Clark.In the run-up to the 2017 election, her Liberal government endorsed the pipeline, but only after some very public fretting about the risks to the environment and some tough negotiations with Alberta Premier Rachel Notley. When Prime Minister Justin Trudeau signed on in late 2016, Clark quickly followed suit, confident the pipeline would pass muster in BC.It didn't. The Premier seems to have underestimated what it takes for people to accept risk, especially big ones like these. They need help from people they trust and who share their interests. As premier, Clark used her position to highlight the pipeline's dangers. But once she signed on, she just assumed they'd follow. Big mistake.The NDP and Greens used the election campaign to hammer home the devastating consequences of an oil spill or a tanker running aground, and their efforts paid off. As Horgan tells it, they rallied 60 per cent of the electorate against the pipeline.Perhaps. But the story isn't over yet; British Columbians have continued to talk. Over the last few months they've been learning about other aspects of the issue, including the benefits of the pipeline and the consequences of blocking construction – especially for Alberta. The results are intriguing.For example, when the Angus Reid Institute recently asked BC residents to weigh the environmental risks against the economic benefits, 35 per cent said the benefits outweighed the risks, 30 per cent said they were about equal, and 34 per cent said the risk was higher than the benefits.If it sounds like the yeas and nays are evenly split, they're not. The middle 30 per cent aren't the usual “undecideds.” From a policy perspective, when 30 per cent say the risk/benefit equation is about equal, this usually means they see the risk as manageable. In other words, if they were convinced that someone – government or business – was doing what it should to mitigate the risks, they'd support the pipeline.It's a point worth pondering. Given the right rules, perhaps 65 per cent of British Columbians would agree that the benefits outweigh the risks. That's a reversal of Horgan's numbers and it would be a gamechanger for Trans Mountain. But so far, no one has a plan to bring these people along or help them work through the issues. The pipeline discussions have been decidedly disconnected from the public.Take Horgan. A string of polls show that people are increasingly uncomfortable with his stance and don't want a war with Alberta, but rather than re-engage them in a search for a better solution, he's asked BC's supreme court to rule on whether his government can restrict the movement of heavy oil through the province.In fact, no one seriously disputes that Ottawa has authority over the pipeline, so Horgan surely knows the court won't hand him the power to stop it. At best, it will grant his government some space to ensure the safety of its lands, waterways, and coasts. But Horgan could have wrestled these concessions from Ottawa months ago. So why go to court?It is a parachute – a face-saving way out of the mess, should he need it. The Angus Reid survey also reports that 70 per cent of British Columbians think Horgan should back off if the court says BC does not have the constitutional authority to block the pipeline. In other words, when the “bad news” comes, he has a way out with dignity. He will have demonstrated his bona fides on the environment and delivered on his election promise to try and stop the pipeline. Of course, the price to the industry could be huge, but that's Alberta's problem.What about Ottawa? As the main regulator for the pipeline it runs the Oceans Protection Plan, which has been the man focus of the BC government's environmental concerns. Ottawa is thus very well-positioned to address questions of risk mitigation.But the lesson from Christy Clark is that people in BC take environmental risks seriously; a government that wants to address their concerns must do more than promise action. It must engage them in a campaign or process that talks the issues through with them and helps them move from one way of seeing the issues to another. That takes leadership, effort, and contact.For a government that prides itself on dialogue and engagement, Ottawa has done almost nothing to reach out to British Columbians this way. Why? With 18 Liberal seats at stake in BC, the government is very nervous about interfering in provincial politics for fear of a backlash. Instead, it's used its time and energy to try to save the pipeline by negotiating with business.It's all a bit surreal. Courts and business are vital here, but public opinion is the real driver behind this conflict. The good news is that it can probably be changed. But so far, engagement and decision-making have been focused on everyone but the public. The results speak for themselves.

Dr. Don Lenihan is an internationally recognized expert on public engagement and Open Government. He is currently advising The Ottawa Hospital on an engagement plan to develop its new Civic Campus – a $2 billion, 10-year project. He also co-chairs the Open Government Partnership's Practice Group on Open Dialogue and Deliberation. Don can be reached at: [email protected] or follow him on Twitter at: @DonLenihan