On Friday Andrew Scheer will address the United Conservative Party convention in Calgary, and the reception he gets should give us all a better sense of his chances of hanging on to the Conservative leadership. So far we’ve mostly heard from Toronto-area Conservatives who backed other candidates against Scheer for the leadership, and colleagues of mine in the press gallery who haven’t voted Conservative since Joe Clark was the leader. Which doesn’t mean they’re wrong, necessarily. Scheer has been even less persuasive since the October election than he was before, which takes some doing. But Friday will offer hints about how Scheer is doing with the bedrock of the Conservative base.