On June 4th Public Works and Government Services Canada (PWGSC) awarded a $3 million services contract to Deloitte LLP of Ottawa for the provision of Task and Solutions Professional Services to Innovation, Science and Economic Development Canada (ISED), in connection with COVID-19 economic recovery planning.The description of the requirement stated in the Tender Notice stated “The Contractor must provide the required professional services...to provide detailed industry sectoral profiles, including the competitiveness of the overall sector, and conduct detailed financial and market assessments of multiple large employers operating in Canada across multiple sectors. The Contractor will also provide ongoing economic and financial analysis and advice with respect to the COVID-19 crisis, its impact on Canada's economic sectors, and the restart of the Canadian economy in the National Capital Region (NCR) initiated through Task Authorizations.”Although late in the game, three months in now, it is good to know that the Government is finally thinking about how we get out of the monumental economic debacle that it created.Less comforting however is the implication that the decision matrix for shut-down didn't include an exit strategy in the first place. As Lord Cardigan discovered too late, it is generally a good idea to know how you are going to get out of the valley before you sound the “Charge” and ride in. This has been a military precept since Clausewitz and has conceptual primacy in modern war and business planning. It is the sort of planning that savvy small business entrepreneurs do before opening a convenience store or a pizza joint. Not on Parliament Hill however, the Prime Minister still has no clear plan for traversing the present old-testament apocalyptic wasteland of global bankruptcy.The good news is…Deloitte employs lots of economists.Merriam Webster defines Economist as, “a specialist in economics”.Cambridge offers, “a person who studies or has a special knowledge of economics”.One popular definition may be more revealing, “An Economist is a trained professional, paid to guess wrong about the economy.”Deloitte advertises the Deloitte Global Economist Network as “…a diverse group of economists that produce relevant, interesting and thought-provoking content for external and internal audiences. The Network's industry and economics expertise allows us to bring sophisticated analysis to complex industry-based questions.”Deloitte is a big global player in economic consulting, and probably a good choice to help out policy makers and the many Government economists already on the public payroll who can't figure this mess out.It's “COVID-19 Economic Recovery Dashboard” describes the current pandemic as a “black swan event” without precedent or modern parallel. It goes on to say that “The actions companies take during the recovery period can set the foundation for them to achieve sustained growth and performance after the pandemic is over.” Not that insightful perhaps, but probably a true statement. The Dashboard is described as “…a monitor of health, social/community activity, financial and economic indicators that will signal when the rebound stage arrives.” It attempts to measure indicators in four categories:Health AI Monitor Financial Economy.As of June 11th, all categories indicate “Red” status. For the benefit of non-economists, red is bad.The AI Monitor collects data from various sources, using proprietary extraction algorithms, to track alternative signals of economic recovery including:Media Sentiment Index Commercial Traffic Activity Index Commuter Traffic Index Foot Traffic Index Distance Travelled Index Air Traffic Index.The Dashboard data is then black-boxed by clever Deloitte economists into useable predictive products for Deloitte customers, such as ISED.Deloitte doesn't equivocate regarding the difficulties ahead, “Given the complexity of the COVID-19 pandemic, there is reason to believe it's recovery phase will require unprecedented levels of orchestration and coordination during what promises to be a challenging and potentially protracted period.” The May 2020 Canadian Economic and Financial Forecast Update predicts a grim near-future, “After contracting by an annualized 10 percent in the first quarter of 2020, Canadian economic output is expected to plunge in the second quarter due to the lockdown was applied across all regions of the country and oil prices tumbled lower (sic). Real gross domestic product is expected to contract by over 50 percent in annualized terms during the second quarter.” Fifty percent!Economic Armageddon then. Most people had that figured already. A three-month layoff usually means selling the Beamer, moving back in with your parents, or doing without groceries.World Bank Group President David Malpass has said “The scope and speed with which the COVID-19 pandemic and economic shutdowns have devastated the poor around the world are unprecedented in modern times. Current estimates show that 60 million people could be pushed into extreme poverty in 2020. These estimates are likely to rise further, with the reopening of advanced economies the primary determinant.” According to the Global Economic Prospects Report, “Deep recessions associated with the pandemic will likely exacerbate the multi-decade slowdown in economic growth and productivity, the primary drivers of higher living standards and poverty reduction. In the long-term, the pandemic will leave lasting damage through multiple channels, including lower investment; erosion of physical and human capital due to closure of businesses and loss of schooling and jobs; and a retreat from global trade and supply linkages. These effects will lower potential output – the output an economy can sustain at full employment and capacity – and labor productivity well into the future. Pre-existing vulnerabilities, fading demographic dividends, and structural bottlenecks will amplify the long-term damage of deep recessions associated with the pandemic.”Deloitte should probably expense a Ouija board to the taxpayers. We are going to need it.It is said that economists have predicted nine out of the past five recessions.