National Newswatch

Bill who? Canadians might not know the finance minister’s name, but they know what they think of him

Nov 23 2017 — Eric Grenier — In 2015’s Canadian Election Study, an academic survey conducted during every federal election campaign, a handful of people asked to name the minister of finance said it was Mike Duffy. One respondent, with some apparent hesitation, said it was “Mulcair maybe.” Another felt confident it was “a lady whose name I don’t recall.” Some guessed […]

Odds of another Liberal majority a coin toss if election held today: polls

Nov 2 2017 — Eric Grenier — Two years after being sworn in with a majority government, the Liberals under Prime Minister Justin Trudeau would have less than even odds in retaining that majority if an election were held today. But despite the reduced lead they hold over the Conservatives in the polls, the Liberals are still in a strong position thanks […]

Census 2016 shows more immigrants, visible minorities and Indigenous people

Oct 25 2017 — Eric Grenier — The share of immigrants in Canada has reached its highest level in almost a century, according to census figures released Wednesday. The Statistics Canada data also shows the Indigenous population is growing at more than four times the rate of the non-Indigenous population, reaching nearly 1.7 million in 2016. These are some of the findings […]

Liberal byelection win in Quebec shows blueprint for 2019 success

Oct 24 2017 — Eric Grenier — The Liberals won the federal byelection in Lac-Saint-Jean on Monday, wrestling away a Conservative riding in dramatic fashion in a province that will play a key role in Justin Trudeau’s 2019 re-election strategy. And though his party did hold its seat in the Alberta riding of Sturgeon River–Parkland — even increasing its vote share significantly […]

4 parties vying for federal byelection win in battleground Quebec

Oct 23 2017 — Eric Grenier — Byelections rarely have the potential for much drama. Monday’s vote in the Quebec riding of Lac-Saint-Jean does. Four parties have the potential to win the seat that former Conservative MP Denis Lebel took by a margin of just five points in 2015. The Conservatives and the New Democrats are contesting the riding with new leaders […]

What Jagmeet Singh can draw from Barack Obama and John F. Kennedy

Oct 7 2017 — Eric Grenier — In 1971, 69 per cent of Americans told Gallup, a pollster, they would vote for their party’s candidate for president if he were black. It took 37 years, but it finally happened with the election of Barack Obama as the U.S. president in 2008. In 2017, 69 per cent of Canadians told the Angus Reid […]

Why Québec Solidaire’s merger with Option Nationale might not pay off

Oct 6 2017 — Eric Grenier — Aside from one less party listed on the ballot when Quebecers go to the polls in October 2018, the merger of Québec Solidaire and Option Nationale is unlikely to have any wider electoral significance. At least not directly. Option Nationale, a centre-left sovereignist party founded by former MNA Jean-Martin Aussant in 2011, has not had […]

Justin Trudeau’s Liberals are sliding in the polls, but it’s complicated

Oct 5 2017 — Eric Grenier — Depending on the poll you’re reading about, the Liberals are either holding a comfortable lead over the Conservatives or locked in a tight race, hobbled by the attacks of new Conservative Leader Andrew Scheer over the government’s proposed tax changes. Either narrative could very well be true — or reality could fit somewhere in between, […]

How Jagmeet Singh won the NDP leadership

Oct 1 2017 — Eric Grenier — Jagmeet Singh pulled off a surprise on Sunday by winning the NDP leadership on the first ballot, handily defeating his rivals in a performance matched only by past NDP stalwarts Tommy Douglas and Jack Layton. Fundraising, polls and membership sign-ups suggested that Singh was on track for a strong first ballot result. The question wasn’t […]

3 lessons from races past as NDP prepares to name its new leader

Oct 1 2017 — Eric Grenier — In 1961, Tommy Douglas was named the first leader of the New Democratic Party at the Coliseum in Ottawa, easily defeating Hazen Argue on the first ballot. Fifty-six years later, New Democrats could announce the name of their eighth leader today in a downtown Toronto convention centre, a building fittingly located next to the Jack […]

6 things fundraising data tells us about NDP leadership race

Sep 27 2017 — Eric Grenier — The results of the first round of voting for the NDP leadership race will be announced Sunday and the latest fundraising numbers provide some clues about what to expect. Elections Canada posted the interim campaign returns on Monday and Tuesday, showing where the four candidates stand in terms of fundraising up to a few weeks […]