National Newswatch

With a week to go, John Tory is still on track for re-election

Oct 16 2018 — Eric Grenier — With a week to go before Monday’s municipal vote in Toronto, John Tory’s re-election odds are looking very good. The incumbent mayor holds a wide and steady lead over his rivals, enjoys strong support among the older Torontonians most likely to cast a ballot and appears set to add the suburbs that voted for Doug […]

Here’s what pollsters missed on Quebec’s vote — and what those lapses mean for the 2019 federal election

Oct 11 2018 — Eric Grenier — Quebec’s historic election presented a challenge to pollsters. It wasn’t until after the results showed that the polls had largely fallen short that the extent of that challenge became clear — explaining in part why the polls missed the mark and providing some lessons that pollsters will take into the 2019 federal election. Going into […]

Quebec, N.B. elections show voters are open to something new

Oct 4 2018 — Eric Grenier — Voters in Canada appear to be in the mood for something a little different. In two provincial elections in as many weeks, significant breakthroughs were made by parties formed so recently that, if they were voters themselves, they’d be too young to cast a ballot. The older, established parties — the ones that have a […]

From the dustbin of history, a warning for Max Bernier

Sep 15 2018 — Eric Grenier — He was a former Conservative cabinet minister who formed his own party and, in the process, contributed to his old party’s defeat. No, this isn’t Maxime Bernier’s story — not yet, at any rate. It’s the story of Henry Herbert Stevens and the Reconstruction Party, a story few remember now. But the parallels with Bernier […]

Smaller parties poised to play bigger role in N.B. election

Aug 30 2018 — Eric Grenier — Though the Liberals and Progressive Conservatives have dominated the political history of New Brunswick, other parties have made their mark over the last two elections. They could do so again on Sept. 24, with potentially significant results. With the exception of the 1991 election, when the Confederation of Regions party formed the official opposition, the […]

Jagmeet Singh’s NDP is losing incumbents and that could hurt in 2019

Aug 29 2018 — Eric Grenier — The list of New Democrats deciding not to run in 2019 is growing, depriving the party of experienced MPs and the electoral advantages of incumbency in some key ridings across the country. Two names were added to the list this week: Linda Duncan, the NDP’s only MP from Alberta, and London-area MP Irene Mathyssen. In […]

New Brunswick’s provincial campaign to kick off as a toss-up

Aug 21 2018 — Eric Grenier — With just days to go before New Brunswick’s provincial election campaign officially gets started, the outcome at this stage looks little better than a toss-up — just another indication that the next five weeks will be decisive in determining whether the province defeats its fourth government in a row or gives an outgoing premier a […]

Maxime Bernier has a base. Is it big enough to protect him?

Aug 16 2018 — Eric Grenier — Is Maxime Bernier too big to boot? Conservative Leader Andrew Scheer has tried to distance himself from Bernier’s controversial tweets about diversity and multiculturalism but will not say whether he is taking any steps to remove the Quebec MP from his party’s caucus. After stripping Bernier of his critic’s portfolio in June, there is little […]