National Newswatch

Election ends the way it began as the closest in recent memory

Oct 20 2019 — Eric Grenier — From start to finish, the polls have shown Justin Trudeau’s Liberals and Andrew Scheer’s Conservatives in a close race, with no party opening up a significant gap over the other. But in the end, there will only be one winner. Well, maybe. Probably. After six weeks, the Liberals and the Conservatives remain pretty much where […]

Conservatives move ahead in seat projection for 1st time in campaign

Oct 12 2019 — Eric Grenier — For the first time in this campaign, the Conservatives have moved marginally ahead of the Liberals in the seat projection after the Bloc Québécois’s gains whittled away the Liberals’ seat base in Quebec. With the two major parties now both below 33 per cent support nationwide, a majority government looks unlikely. The NDP has seen […]

Close elections like this one are rare — and hard to predict

Oct 5 2019 — Eric Grenier — We’re nearly four weeks into this campaign and the polls haven’t budged — meaning the Conservatives and Liberals remain neck-and-neck in national voting intentions just two weeks out from the Oct. 21 vote. It might seem unusual that this election has remained deadlocked for so long — and it is. Only a handful of previous […]

Tonight’s TVA debate could shake up the electoral map in Quebec

Oct 2 2019 — Eric Grenier — In a few hours, four federal leaders will participate in what could be a watershed event in the current election campaign in one of the country’s most volatile battlegrounds — Quebec. The French-language debate organized by the TVA network will feature Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau, Conservative Leader Andrew Scheer, NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh and Yves-François […]

What tipping point seats say about Liberal, Conservative paths to victory

Sep 30 2019 — Eric Grenier — There’s one number that means more than anything in this election campaign for Justin Trudeau and Andrew Scheer: 170. That’s the number of seats needed for a majority government — and the seats that get them to and past that threshold reveal what their paths to a majority depend on. Political analysts in the United […]

To understand a party’s election strategy, just follow the leader

Sep 25 2019 — Eric Grenier — If you want to know where the federal parties think this election will be won or lost, you only need to look at where they’ve sent their leaders. Two weeks into this campaign, those hints are about as subtle as a flashing neon sign. An analysis of each leader’s tour schedule reveals that both the […]

Conservatives take narrow lead, Liberal seat advantage slips

Sep 21 2019 — Eric Grenier — The Conservatives have moved narrowly ahead in the national polling average, though the Liberals remain marginally favoured to win more seats. A minority government headed up by one party or the other is more likely than a majority government at this stage. The New Democrats have not shown much momentum and on track to lose […]

Dropping a candidate can cost a party support, but the impact is small

Sep 16 2019 — Eric Grenier — Should they stay or should they go? Party leaders are asking themselves that question a lot lately, as old social media posts are dredged up about some of their candidates. Conservative Leader Andrew Scheer says that, on condition of an apology and acceptance of responsibility for what they’ve said in the past, he would stand […]

The 60 ridings that tell the story of where the election will be won and lost

Sep 15 2019 — Eric Grenier — Where do Justin Trudeau’s Liberals need to win to secure re-election? What is the path to a majority government for Andrew Scheer and the Conservatives? What does the future for the NDP under Jagmeet Singh look like? And can Elizabeth May’s Greens, Maxime Bernier’s new People’s Party or Independents like Jody Wilson-Raybould change the electoral […]

Liberals, Conservatives still tied but Liberal seat edge improves

Sep 15 2019 — Eric Grenier — The Conservatives and Liberals are nearly tied in national support, after the Conservatives had previously enjoyed a lead in the polls stretching back to February. The Liberals are favoured over the Conservatives to win the most seats, but whether any party can secure a majority is a toss-up. The New Democrats are well back in […]