National Newswatch

How Andrew Scheer ranks among Conservative leaders

Dec 13 2019 — Eric Grenier — With the exception of the time when the conservative movement in Canada was divided, only two leaders of the Conservative Party or its Progressive Conservative predecessor led their parties into a single election before resigning: Robert Manion and John Bracken. Until Thursday, that is. Now, Andrew Scheer’s name can be added to that item of […]

How solid is Andrew Scheer’s Conservative caucus support?

Nov 27 2019 — Eric Grenier — Conservative Leader Andrew Scheer has taken heat from some of his defeated candidates this week — but those who lost in October aren’t the only ones with reasons to want a change at the top. Most of the Conservative incumbents who won re-election in Ontario and Quebec did so despite a drop in their share […]

Trudeau’s cabinet picks rewarded the 2 provinces that kept him in power

Nov 22 2019 — Eric Grenier — Justin Trudeau’s new cabinet might not be an accurate representation of the country, but it does reflect the Liberal caucus that Canadians sent to Ottawa last month — including the remarkably large number of Liberal MPs from the two provinces that kept the party in power. That MPs from Ontario and Quebec are taking up […]

‘It definitely woke up the electorate’: Liberal pollster on the events that shook up the campaign

Nov 1 2019 — Eric Grenier — Two events proved to be significant turning points in the election campaign. One was the rise of the Bloc Québécois after the first French-language debate “fundamentally shifted the dynamics,” according to Dan Arnold, the Liberal Party’s pollster. The other was the moment that the electorate “definitely woke up” — the news that the prime minister […]

Few losing opposition leaders get a second chance – and fewer still succeed if they get it

Oct 30 2019 — Eric Grenier — “Remember 2004, Stephen Harper’s first election,” Conservative Leader Andrew Scheer told his audience on election night after the results showed his party with fewer seats than the Liberals. “He erased Paul Martin’s majority and then went on to lead a Conservative government that lasted for nearly 10 years.” Scheer, facing a leadership review by party […]

Canada’s pollsters nailed the outcome of the federal election – mostly

Oct 24 2019 — Eric Grenier — Politicians and pundits love nothing more than to say the polls can’t be trusted. After all, the numbers frequently get in the way of talking points or convenient narratives. But in the 2019 federal election, the polls did pretty well — and where they didn’t, they offer clues about what happened on Monday. Roughly 120 […]

Ontario and Quebec keep Liberals in power and Conservatives out

Oct 22 2019 — Eric Grenier — The Liberals lost support in every province across Canada in yesterday’s federal election, and it cost them their majority government. But it wasn’t enough to cost them power. Justin Trudeau will remain prime minister because voters in Quebec and Ontario didn’t want to give the job to Conservative Leader Andrew Scheer. The Liberals took a […]

Election ends the way it began as the closest in recent memory

Oct 20 2019 — Eric Grenier — From start to finish, the polls have shown Justin Trudeau’s Liberals and Andrew Scheer’s Conservatives in a close race, with no party opening up a significant gap over the other. But in the end, there will only be one winner. Well, maybe. Probably. After six weeks, the Liberals and the Conservatives remain pretty much where […]

Conservatives move ahead in seat projection for 1st time in campaign

Oct 12 2019 — Eric Grenier — For the first time in this campaign, the Conservatives have moved marginally ahead of the Liberals in the seat projection after the Bloc Québécois’s gains whittled away the Liberals’ seat base in Quebec. With the two major parties now both below 33 per cent support nationwide, a majority government looks unlikely. The NDP has seen […]

Close elections like this one are rare — and hard to predict

Oct 5 2019 — Eric Grenier — We’re nearly four weeks into this campaign and the polls haven’t budged — meaning the Conservatives and Liberals remain neck-and-neck in national voting intentions just two weeks out from the Oct. 21 vote. It might seem unusual that this election has remained deadlocked for so long — and it is. Only a handful of previous […]