National Newswatch

Have Quebecers moved on? Sort of.

Jun 17 2022 — Philippe J. Fournier — Is Quebec Premier François Legault secretly planning a referendum on independence, as some media commentators have been hinting? Fresh numbers suggest he should not. Why? First, he would lose. Second, his coalition party — which has governed Quebec since 2018 — would probably implode. The arrival of Bernard Drainville (former PQ cabinet minister) and Caroline […]

How far right is the path to Conservative victory?

Jun 13 2022 — Philippe J. Fournier — A lesson from Ontario Premier Doug Ford’s landslide for the federal party. Where you stand on child raising offers clues to where you sit in the swirl of Canadian politics. Consider these questions: When raising children, which do you think is more important to emphasize: Strength or wisdom? Morality or reason and evidence? Creativity or […]

338Canada: Ford on track for majority win in Ontario

Jun 1 2022 — Philippe J. Fournier — With a day to go, the 2022 Ontario campaign appears poised to end where it started. Doug Ford’s Progressive Conservative Party entered its reelection campaign with a sizable lead against vulnerable opponents, and although some individual polls did suggest some tightening in mid-May, polling during the past month never really steered away from preelection trends.

338Canada: Doug Ford and Ontario’s race for second

May 25 2022 — Philippe J. Fournier — Doug Ford is heading toward a second majority at Queen’s Park — not that anyone is paying attention. In the unlikely scenario all the polls released in Ontario ahead of its June 2 election turn out to be wrong, or if tens of thousands of voters do indeed vote strategically to deny the premier his […]

338Canada: Erin O’Toole is trapped

Jan 30 2022 — Philippe J. Fournier — The Conservative leader’s latest personal popularity numbers are bleak, inside and outside his party. Erin O’Toole has been leader of the Conservative Party for close to 18 months now, and during his leadership the only time his favourability numbers showed any sign of improvement was the two-week span between the Prime Minister calling an election […]

338Canada: The Liberals cannot afford voter apathy

Aug 19 2021 — Philippe J. Fournier — Dissatisfaction with the federal government is on the rise, according to the newest poll from Abacus Data, which was on the field taking the pulse of Canadians when Justin Trudeau asked Governor General Mary Simon to dissolve the House of Commons. According to the results, only 41 per cent of Canadians believe the country “is […]

338Canada: Trudeau’s election to lose

Aug 15 2021 — Philippe J. Fournier — After months of speculation, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has finally decided to push all his chip in the electoral pot, betting that his handling of the pandemic thus far (because no, it’s not over) will win over just enough voters in the right ridings to secure a majority at the House of Commons. While any […]

Federal election 2021: Know your pollsters

Aug 6 2021 — Philippe J. Fournier — In his best-selling book Cracking the Quebec Code, Jean-Marc Léger wrote “Political polls make for about 1% of all my revenues, but account to 99% of my problems.” So, why do it then? For many market-research firms, political polling serves as an efficient way to promote their brand, attract customers and, when successful, show clients […]

The splintering of the right in Alberta: 338Canada

Jun 16 2021 — Philippe J. Fournier — When Mainstreet Research released its latest Alberta poll in May showing the Wildrose Independence Party in third place with 17 per cent of voting intentions province-wide, some eyebrows were understandably raised. Could it be that Jason Kenney’s right flank was splintering off his United Conservative Party, a narrative ominously similar to the one that doomed […]