Jun 17 2022 — Philippe J. Fournier — Politico — Is Quebec Premier François Legault secretly planning a referendum on independence, as some media commentators have been hinting? Fresh numbers suggest he should not. Why? First, he would lose. Second, his coalition party — which has governed Quebec since 2018 — would probably implode. The arrival of Bernard Drainville (former PQ cabinet minister) and Caroline […]
Jun 13 2022 — Philippe J. Fournier — Politico — A lesson from Ontario Premier Doug Ford’s landslide for the federal party. Where you stand on child raising offers clues to where you sit in the swirl of Canadian politics. Consider these questions: When raising children, which do you think is more important to emphasize: Strength or wisdom? Morality or reason and evidence? Creativity or […]
Jun 1 2022 — Philippe J. Fournier — Politico — With a day to go, the 2022 Ontario campaign appears poised to end where it started. Doug Ford’s Progressive Conservative Party entered its reelection campaign with a sizable lead against vulnerable opponents, and although some individual polls did suggest some tightening in mid-May, polling during the past month never really steered away from preelection trends.
May 25 2022 — Philippe J. Fournier — Politico — Doug Ford is heading toward a second majority at Queen’s Park — not that anyone is paying attention. In the unlikely scenario all the polls released in Ontario ahead of its June 2 election turn out to be wrong, or if tens of thousands of voters do indeed vote strategically to deny the premier his […]
May 11 2022 — Philippe J. Fournier — Politico — Canada’s Conservatives often boast about the size of their tent, though its capacity is being tested by wildly differing viewpoints on the Freedom Convoy protest. Questions about the trucker convoy took center stage last week when five of six leadership candidates met to debate in Ottawa — not far from where hundreds of trucks and […]
May 5 2022 — Philippe J. Fournier — Politico — When non-conservative politicians bring up abortion on Parliament Hill, critics are quick to accuse them of using scare tactics, fear mongering and political opportunism. There has been no avoiding the issue since the leak of a U.S. Supreme Court draft opinion on overturning Roe v. Wade. The blockbuster news from the U.S. is stirring the […]
Mar 27 2022 — Philippe J. Fournier — Maclean's — The June 2 Ontario general election is fast approaching (only 67 days, but who’s counting). Opinion polls over the past months have shown little movement in voting intentions, meaning Doug Ford’s Progressive Conservative Party remains, at this point in time, the favourite to win the most seats. And while the Ontario Liberal Party and Ontario […]
Feb 14 2022 — Philippe J. Fournier — Maclean's — The Conservative Party of Canada is (once again) entering a leadership race after Erin O’Toole was precipitously expelled by his own caucus last week. The favourite candidate at the starting line of this race is Carleton MP Pierre Poilievre. According to the latest Leger poll released on Tuesday, Poilievre is by far the preferred candidate […]
Jan 30 2022 — Philippe J. Fournier — Maclean's — The Conservative leader’s latest personal popularity numbers are bleak, inside and outside his party. Erin O’Toole has been leader of the Conservative Party for close to 18 months now, and during his leadership the only time his favourability numbers showed any sign of improvement was the two-week span between the Prime Minister calling an election […]
Sep 2 2021 — Philippe J. Fournier — Maclean's — Last week, the three polling firms that have surveyed Canadians daily since the start of the campaign (namely Nanos Research, Mainstreet Research and EKOS) all measured a gradual deterioration in support for the Liberal Party of Canada in favour of the Conservative Party. Naturally, we eagerly awaited the next wave of data from the other […]
Aug 19 2021 — Philippe J. Fournier — Maclean's — Dissatisfaction with the federal government is on the rise, according to the newest poll from Abacus Data, which was on the field taking the pulse of Canadians when Justin Trudeau asked Governor General Mary Simon to dissolve the House of Commons. According to the results, only 41 per cent of Canadians believe the country “is […]
Aug 15 2021 — Philippe J. Fournier — Maclean's — After months of speculation, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has finally decided to push all his chip in the electoral pot, betting that his handling of the pandemic thus far (because no, it’s not over) will win over just enough voters in the right ridings to secure a majority at the House of Commons. While any […]
Aug 6 2021 — Philippe J. Fournier — Maclean's — In his best-selling book Cracking the Quebec Code, Jean-Marc Léger wrote “Political polls make for about 1% of all my revenues, but account to 99% of my problems.” So, why do it then? For many market-research firms, political polling serves as an efficient way to promote their brand, attract customers and, when successful, show clients […]
Aug 2 2021 — Philippe J. Fournier — Maclean's — Who is in the mood for a general election in Canada this fall? Not many of us, according to a recent Nanos Research poll published by CTV News. Results from this survey indicate that only 26 per cent of Canadians “support the prospect of a federal election in the fall,” while 37 per cent would […]
Jun 16 2021 — Philippe J. Fournier — Maclean's — When Mainstreet Research released its latest Alberta poll in May showing the Wildrose Independence Party in third place with 17 per cent of voting intentions province-wide, some eyebrows were understandably raised. Could it be that Jason Kenney’s right flank was splintering off his United Conservative Party, a narrative ominously similar to the one that doomed […]