National Newswatch

338Canada: Where is Canada’s Conservative surge?

Aug 26 2022 — Philippe J. Fournier — The Conservative Party of Canada has hundreds of thousands of new card-carrying members. And early next month, it will boast a new leader. All it needs now is momentum. Consider these less-than-stellar recent polls: A Léger survey earlier this month had the Liberals with 33 percent nationally, while the Conservatives took second with 28 percent.

338Canada: Will Quebec Liberals recover from the next election?

Aug 10 2022 — Philippe J. Fournier — Premier François Legault and his Coalition Avenir Québec are certain to win the next provincial election. Less clear is what the race will do to his competitors. By every empirical indicator — voting intentions, government approval, party financing, favorability ratings — Legault and the CAQ will win a second straight majority in Quebec on Oct. […]

338Canada: Is Canada’s Conservative race a given?

Aug 2 2022 — Philippe J. Fournier — Is the Conservative leadership race tightening? Short answer: Yes. Long answer: Yes, but it may already be too late for Jean Charest. New data on the Conservative Party of Canada leadership contest was unveiled last week. While Carleton MP Pierre Poilievre remains the unquestioned favorite, former federal Progressive Conservative leader and Quebec Premier Charest has […]

Quebec Premier François Legault is en route to historic victory — with an assist from adversaries

Jul 11 2022 — Philippe J. Fournier — On Canada Day, Shirley Dorismond handed out mini Canadian flags in her Quebec riding, an activity that earned the newly elected Coalition Avenir Québec politician much scoffing from some pro-independence supporters. Days later, newly nominated CAQ candidate Pascale Déry was called to account for her past as a candidate for Stephen Harper’s Conservatives in the […]

Have Quebecers moved on? Sort of.

Jun 17 2022 — Philippe J. Fournier — Is Quebec Premier François Legault secretly planning a referendum on independence, as some media commentators have been hinting? Fresh numbers suggest he should not. Why? First, he would lose. Second, his coalition party — which has governed Quebec since 2018 — would probably implode. The arrival of Bernard Drainville (former PQ cabinet minister) and Caroline […]

How far right is the path to Conservative victory?

Jun 13 2022 — Philippe J. Fournier — A lesson from Ontario Premier Doug Ford’s landslide for the federal party. Where you stand on child raising offers clues to where you sit in the swirl of Canadian politics. Consider these questions: When raising children, which do you think is more important to emphasize: Strength or wisdom? Morality or reason and evidence? Creativity or […]

338Canada: Ford on track for majority win in Ontario

Jun 1 2022 — Philippe J. Fournier — With a day to go, the 2022 Ontario campaign appears poised to end where it started. Doug Ford’s Progressive Conservative Party entered its reelection campaign with a sizable lead against vulnerable opponents, and although some individual polls did suggest some tightening in mid-May, polling during the past month never really steered away from preelection trends.

338Canada: Doug Ford and Ontario’s race for second

May 25 2022 — Philippe J. Fournier — Doug Ford is heading toward a second majority at Queen’s Park — not that anyone is paying attention. In the unlikely scenario all the polls released in Ontario ahead of its June 2 election turn out to be wrong, or if tens of thousands of voters do indeed vote strategically to deny the premier his […]

338Canada: Erin O’Toole is trapped

Jan 30 2022 — Philippe J. Fournier — The Conservative leader’s latest personal popularity numbers are bleak, inside and outside his party. Erin O’Toole has been leader of the Conservative Party for close to 18 months now, and during his leadership the only time his favourability numbers showed any sign of improvement was the two-week span between the Prime Minister calling an election […]

338Canada: The Liberals cannot afford voter apathy

Aug 19 2021 — Philippe J. Fournier — Dissatisfaction with the federal government is on the rise, according to the newest poll from Abacus Data, which was on the field taking the pulse of Canadians when Justin Trudeau asked Governor General Mary Simon to dissolve the House of Commons. According to the results, only 41 per cent of Canadians believe the country “is […]