Last winter/spring, as Stephen Harper sat sullenly in the Commons getting grilled on the Senate, there was growing speculation he'd be gone by the fall. Not anymore.These days he is being fêted at home and abroad for his “principled stand” against thugs and terrorists, and the question now is whether this will pay off at the ballot box.It just might. While it's been a bad year for Harper, a few key things are finally coming together that could provide the basis for a strong campaign, including the European trade agreement and a balanced budget. Harper's biggest problem is his image.Between the Senate scandal, the Fair Elections Act, and his fiercely partisan style, he often looks like his own worst enemy. Talk of him as a bully and a control-freak is commonplace.At the international level, however, things are different. Indeed, they are just the opposite. Perhaps ironically, Harper has positioned himself as a champion of democracy and is using his place on the world stage to stand up to tyrants and terrorists.Politically, this is starting to look like a very smart move. By contrast with Vladimir Putin or Hamas Harper can't help but look good. Standing up to them looks even better. While he's been criticized for being too one-sided, and even of shooting from the lip, lots of people agree with his hard line.Certainly Israel does. And in the case of Putin, at least, events seem to be vindicating Harper's early instincts. Indeed, he is starting to look prescient. If this continues, he will emerge as a respected world leader on these issues—and that would go a long way to rehabilitating the lingering image of him here in Canada as a bully and a control-freak.Some readers will be gasping, but I am not taking sides on this. My point is just that, while lots of Canadians oppose Harper's views on the issues, lots of others like what they see. So much so that the only Canadian leader who's actually taken steps to oppose him is Elizabeth May—and even she has been cautious.As for Tom Mulcair and Justin Trudeau, they are keeping a low profile. They really don't have much choice. As things stand, there's nowhere for them to go. Harper's “moral clarity” on terrorism has made the traditional, more moderate diplomacy politically dangerous ground. Nobody wants to be accused of siding with terrorists or thugs.So, while Harper may never be loved, this new role as the G7's moral voice on terrorism could bring him the next best thing: respect. To the extent that he is successful, Tom Mulcair and Justin Trudeau's stature will be reduced by comparison. And Harper will deliver the campaign narrative in a voice that now carries international resonance, starting with the Comprehensive European Trade Agreement.Trade is the Conservative's symbol of prosperity. With 28 Member States, over 500 million people, and a GDP of €13.0 trillion in 2012, the European Union is the world's largest single market. Of course, most Canadians have no idea what is included in CETA, but that won't matter. The numbers and the idea have a weightiness that evokes a bigger, cosmopolitan view of Canada's future; and of how our prosperity is linked to our friends in other parts of the world. If the first of this strategy works, Harper will be very well-positioned to deliver such a message.(Germany's alleged concerns over the agreement are likely no more than a setback. The Germans are already playing down the disagreement and we can assume it will get settled. Harper needs this deal too badly to let it fail.)The third part of this campaign strategy focuses on the balanced budget. It will allow Harper to speak about the discipline of governing with a new kind of authority. He will be the only leader who has demonstrated that he is willing to spend when necessary and able to stop when the crisis is over. Few governments can make the same claim.Of course, lots of things could wrong with this plan and events are unfolding that could lead to a very different ending. The biggest threat may be Mike Duffy, who is scheduled to appear in court on September 16th. When the trial begins, who knows what he will say but, if he really has a story, he will likely tell it.On the other hand, the actual trial date may be some time coming—as much as 18 months away, according to one expert. If so, we can pretty much count on a spring election.Then there's the Auditor General's report on the Senate, which is rumoured to be coming in March 2015. How bad will the news be? We have no idea but, for Harper, any news will be bad news.Finally, there will be the slow, painful death of the Northern Gateway and Keystone Pipelines, both of which are now on life-support. But given that everyone now knows this, much of the fallout may already have been absorbed.So, yes, there are uncertainties, but there always are. On the other hand, if the strategy is successful, for the first time Harper will be campaigning as a world leader. He will speak with a new kind of authority and he will have a clear, simple and convincing story to tell about his vision for the future.Indeed, standing up to terrorists is about as clear and simple as a story can get. It comes down to a basic choice: either you're with us or you're against us. And this is the kind of argument Harper makes very well.At the same time, CETA will let him speak confidently about our prosperity in a changing world. And that will provide a nice counterpoint to the harsher, anti-terrorist message. As for the balanced budget, it will reaffirm the Conservatives' status as sound fiscal managers.So there it is: Strong and principled leadership; prosperity and opportunity through international trade; and disciplined fiscal management. All three are likely to be key pillars of Harper's platform in 2015.Dr. Don Lenihan is an internationally recognized expert on democracy, public engagement, accountability and service delivery. Since 2009, he has been Senior Associate at Canada's Public Policy Forum in Ottawa. From October 2013 to April 2014, Don served as Chair of the Ontario Open Government Engagement Team. The views expressed here are those of the columnist alone. Don can be reached at: [email protected] or follow him on Twitter at: @DonLenihan