Election Issue Monitor says Oliver's Budget is a Balancing Act

Crafting a pre-election budget is a lot like juggling knives: The challenge of keeping so many sharp objects simultaneously aloft requires focus, precision and nerves of steel.Against the backdrop of a fall election, Finance Minister Joe Oliver appears to have done a commendable job of balancing both economic and political realities in the 2015/16 budget. That's no small accomplishment – especially given the intense scrutiny and the honed blades of the objects in question.Nowhere has that scrutiny been greater than within Conservative ranks. The party's traditional base has been watching closely for any signs that their priorities have been diluted as Prime Minister Harper has occupied and then expanded Canada's political middle ground.In the months leading up to the fall election, the economy is unquestionably the most important single issue for all voters. ENsight Canada's Election Monitor Survey indicates that more than three-quarters of Canadians identified a balanced budget as an urgent or important priority.But on non-economic issues, a substantial gap between Conservative voters and other Canadians has emerged in terms of extending the military mission against ISIS and the passage of anti-terrorism legislation contained in Bill C-51. In ENsight's pre-budget survey, fewer than half of Canadians (45%) saw ISIS mission extension as a priority. Among Conservative voters, 69% saw the same issue as a priority.Given these differences, the budget initiative that provides continued funding to the mission is likely to meet with substantially greater appeal among the Tory base and to effectively meet their demands for Canada's on-going participation in the fight against the Islamic State.Similarly, the pre-budget findings in our survey also revealed that almost two-thirds of Canadians (64%) saw anti-terrorism legislation as a priority. Among Conservative voters, more than eight-in-ten (82%) saw the initiative as a priority, with almost one-in-two viewing it as urgent.Again, tax dollars earmarked in the budget for anti-terrorism activity, extended surveillance of Canadian's internet and cell phone use, and other measures contained within C-51 will resonate more loudly with those who report that they are likely to vote Conservative in October.What is notable about this Conservative budget, is how effectively it aligns public demands and the demands of core Conservative voters on economic issues. The attention paid to economic growth, jobs and tax breaks may have Conservatives nodding somewhat more vigorously than others. But almost all Canadians will find something in the document that reflects their priorities in 2015.ENsight's research found that job creation, a plan for economic growth, tax breaks and strengthening the middle class top the list of voter priorities. Cuts to small business taxes for job stimulation, a focus on economic growth, income splitting and increased limits to TFSA contributions are the check mark beside each of these top demands. And the findings reveal no statistical difference across party lines in identifying most key economic measures, particularly after the “atrocious” start to the year in Canada.As public debate ebbs and flows over the next several months, ENsight will monitor whether the opposition parties can divert the public focus away from the priorities – and a budget - that, as of now, unites Canadians to a remarkable extent.And for the Tories, the juggling act has only begun.Jaime Watt Executive Chairman Navigator Ltd ENsight Principal