Editor's Note: The Liberal Party of Canada will hold its nomination meeting for the riding of Eglinton-Lawrence on Sunday, July 26th.  With former Conservative Party MP Eve Adams facing off against Marco Mendicino for the party's nomination in the riding, we thought it would be interesting to examine the fate of past floor-crossers in Canada's political history.  National Newswatch contributor Maddison Long took on the laborious task of researching the history of federal and provincial floor-crossers in Canada.  Below is Long's analysis.  (A spreadsheet providing what we believe to be the first-ever complete list of the 353 Canadian politicians who have crossed the floor of their legislatures - or left their parties to sit as independents -- is also available.)Though floor-crossing sparks controversy whenever it occurs, the political phenomenon is a well-established tradition in parliamentary democracies.  (Winston Churchill crossed the floor twice!)When MP Eve Adams left the Conservative caucus to join the Liberals earlier this year she was just the latest in a long line of floor-crossers at the federal or provincial level in Canada.  Interestingly, little attention is usually paid to floor-crossers' ultimate political fate – largely due to the fact that their individual situations are understandably overshadowed by the focus on the outcome of general elections.  Wanting to get a sense of how successful such a bold political move ultimately proves to be, I undertook to research the circumstances (and ultimate fate) of politicians who leave their caucus colleagues behind and pursue their political careers under a different banner.  I found a total of 353 instances of politicians abandoning their party to either join another party or sit as an independent.  Strictly speaking, a politician who leaves their party caucus to sit as an independent is not a floor-crosser but since many of those who become independents later join another party, my investigation naturally included looking at any politician who became an independent MP.  At the very least, I knew it would be interesting to get a sense of their 're-electability', since it is a rare circumstance when any politician is elected as an independent in Canada.Crossing the floor is just the first of three steps in the re-branding processThose who take this challenging path find that crossing the floor of their legislature is just the first of three steps in their political transition.  It is clear that floor-crossers are travelling a hazardous political road, right from the outset.At the time of their announced floor-crossing, the 'defectors' suffer the slings and arrows of their former colleagues even as they join a sometimes welcoming but often skeptical caucus of new colleagues.  They typically face a barrage of questions, allegations and insinuations regarding the 'real' reasons for their crossing.  Caucus colleagues - both the former and the new -- quite frequently express (or at least harbour) doubts about the sincerity of the defector's change in ideology.  Media and pundits opine at length regarding the motivations and the broader political implications, if any.  Meanwhile, party members in the affected ridings contemplate their own, oftentimes conflicted, emotions regarding the crossing.Step 2 in political re-branding: Securing the riding nominationWhen all the initial excitement and attention about the defection dies down, the re-branded politician faces the second step in the transition: securing the riding nomination for their party.Many long-time party activists with very impressive credentials have failed in their attempts at getting nominated as a candidate.  So, one can easily imagine how challenging it can be for those who not only have no established base (or even history) within a party but - even worse - face the task of convincing the members of their new party to overlook the fact that they were once political opponents.We will soon find out whether Eve Adams will have completed the second step without getting tripped up.Winning re-election is the ultimate measure of the success of any attempt at political re-brandingIf Ms. Adams does win the Liberal party nomination in Eglinton-Lawrence, she will have one final step to take before her political transition can be deemed a success: winning re-election in a general election.Voters have most recently had an opportunity to provide 'direct feedback' to a high-profile floor-crosser in Alberta.  Until her dramatic change of heart, Danielle Smith was the leader of Alberta's official opposition Wildrose Party -- and one of the harshest critics of the incumbent Progressive Conservative government.  In the fall of 2014, in an unprecedented move, Smith led eight of her fellow Wildrose MLAs across the floor to join Premier Jim Prentice's PC caucus.The justification provided for the Wildrose floor-crossers was the change in PC leadership to Jim Prentice, the former federal Conservative minister who had recently returned to politics after five years in the private sector.  Smith had described the historic event as “uniting conservatives under the leadership of one person so that [they] can deal with some very significant challenges ahead”.  She declared it a “victory” for the Wildrose Party.As it turned out, Danielle Smith's audacious political move wasn't as warmly welcomed by her riding's PC membership as it was by Alberta's Conservative premier.  Smith lost the Conservative nomination (rather convincingly) to a local Councillor (Carrie Fischer), who subsequently lost to Wildrose candidate Wayne Anderson in the provincial election.   It is worth noting that, less than one year after the mass defection, not one of the nine Wildrose floor crossers sit in the Alberta legislature: three did not seek re-election; three (including former leader Danielle Smith) failed to secure the local nomination in their new party; and three others were nominated but went on to lose in the provincial election.Although the context of the Danielle Smith and Eve Adams floor-crossings are very different, the abrupt end to the former Wildrose leader's once-promising political career may provide some insight into whether enough Liberals in Eglinton-Lawrence will embrace Ms. Adams.  If changing political stripes didn't present enough of a challenge, it is worth noting that Eve Adams has also given herself a second daunting challenge: seeking to win the nomination in a riding in which she has not been a resident - in other words, as an 'outsider'.  Even if Adams is successful in securing the nomination in a room full of a projected 1200-1500 Liberal Party members, there is no guarantee that she will be able to rally enough voters to defeat her high profile Conservative rival, Finance Minister Joe Oliver, in the general election.A brief history of defections and floor-crossing in CanadaFloor-crossing has been practiced by members of the House of Commons and provincial legislatures from coast to coast since before confederation. To date, there have been 353 instances where federal or provincial level politicians have defected from one party caucus to another or moved to sit as independents.  The reasons cited have varied from perceived betrayal by party leadership to polarizing positions on issues such as confederation, conscription or scandals.So, when and how did floor-crossing first occur in Canada?Andrew Rainsford Wetmore was a member of the Anti-Confederation Party caucus in the New Brunswick colonial legislature.  Wetmore aspired to one day be the Attorney-General of New Brunswick and was led to believe that the Anti-Confederation Party would help him succeed with his aspirations.  However, once the Anti-Confederation Party formed government, he came to realize that he would not be appointed as the Attorney-General.  Wetmore took this news as a betrayal of his aspirations and concluded that the only way he could achieve his potential was with the Confederation Party.  In 1866, one year before confederation, Wetmore became the first ever 'Canadian' politician to switch from one political party to another.  He would later help the Confederation Party form government in 1866, and in 1867 New Brunswick joined Canada.  In the same year, Wetmore would become the premier of New Brunswick.  On August 16, 1867, he achieved his lifelong aspiration, being sworn in to the Executive Council as Attorney General.In the century and a half since Wetmore switched allegiances hundreds of Canadian politicians have crossed the floor -- for numerous reasons and with varying results.  Many -- from Joseph Howe in 1869 to Scott Brison in 2003 -- would succeed in advancing their career in their new party, but just as many others were either unsuccessful or never sought re-election, leaving them to wonder about the decision that led to their perhaps premature exit from public life.  (David Emerson's crossing from the Liberals to the Conservatives following the 2006 election was a recent notable example of the latter; Emerson did not seek re-election.)A breakdown of the political fate of the 353 instances where a Canadian politician crossed the floor (or moved to sit as an independent) is as follows:49% were successful in being re-elected in the subsequent election; 33% were unsuccessful in their re-election bid; 13% decided not to run for re-election after crossing the floor; 5% have recently crossed the floor and thus their political fates are still to be determined.So, how does this compare to the 'average' politician?  In his well-researched book "A Matter of Quality? Candidates in Canadian General Elections", pollster David Coletto wrote that "Between 1968 - 1993, incumbent re-election rates ranged from 61% - 85%. Volatility is highest when a political party is swept into power with a majority government, as happened in 1984 and 1993. More recently, incumbent re-election rates have stabilized, averaging 88% for the 2004, 2006 and 2008 elections."Coletto's findings suggest that floor-crossing politicians, on average, are significantly less successful in their bid for re-election.  We shouldn't find this too surprising, given that the defectors give up at least some of the usual incumbency advantage and likely face a more skeptical than usual electorate.  Except in rare instances, incumbents also usually have the advantage of not facing an incumbent.  If she does secure the Liberal nomination, it is worth noting that MP Eve Adams has added significantly to her challenge by switching both her party and her riding -- and by choosing to compete against a well-known Conservative incumbent in Finance Minister Joe Oliver.(To view a spreadsheet providing detail on each of the 353 instances reviewed -- and some political context-setting -- click here.)Maddison Long is a student at the University of Ottawa and occasional contributor to National Newswatch and the Prince Arthur Herald. Maddison can be reached at: [email protected] or follow him on Twitter @Maddison_Long