This Could Change Everything

Writing in the Washington Post this past week, Fareed Zakaria noted that the hard edge of populism might be on the wane.  Citing a lessening in tensions on the issues of immigration and lack of economic opportunity, he nevertheless wrote: “In both cases, the crisis appears to be over, but the fury remains.”Indeed it does, making itself felt in places like Germany, Britain, with Brexit, America and Canada.  While south of the border the virulent voices, including President Trump's, have taken to ignoring democratic standards outright and challenging history in every court they can find, here in Canada we find a growing wave of resentment that has put six Conservative governments in place provincially and even empowered the usually more balanced federal Conservative leader, Andrew Scheer, to flirt dangerously with climate change deniers, alt-right forces and even stoking the anti-abortion fires at the same time as he denies it.But there's a new evolution coming that could change everything.  It could even leave today's conservative populism lying in the dust.  It's not a policy idea, radical political promise or some dynamic new leader.  Rather, it is the inevitability of generational change and it is likely to transform this country as well as its politics.Karl Manheim observed that, “a generation is defined not solely by its birth years but also by the principal historical experience its members shared in their youth.”  That was clearly so in the post-World War Two years, as citizens who had experienced poverty, the Depression and a world conflict that saw some 80 million people perish (3% of the then world population), found those experiences so unforgettable that they elected successive governments of various stripes that eventually paved the way for the remarkable birth of the Canadian middle-class.Some might say the Millennials (born between 1981 -1995) and Generation Z (1995 – 2010) hardly faced such disruptions.  They would be wrong.  In their years they watched stable employment fade away as manufacturing crumbled.  They saw their student loans mushroom and their chances for owning a home slide.  And with the financial crisis of 2007, they saw any chance of becoming financially prosperous fade along with the fortunes of millions of others.And what must they think of the politics that spanned their years?  Hyper-partisanship, the rise of the alt-right, the refusal to effectively tackle climate change, poverty or wage stagnation (wages have hardly budged in four decades).  That's a lot and these dysfunctions have come to define almost every aspect of their lives.  So, to say that these developments aren't great enough to infuse the younger generations with a collective sense of political purpose would be a costly oversight.Poll after poll, whether in Europe, the U.S. or Canada, inform us of the values that drive the vast majority of these generations and they look nothing like what Doug Ford, Jason Kenney, Andrew Scheer, Donald Trump or the Republican Party espouse.  In massive percentages, those between 18 and 35 wish to see more tolerant communities, equal pay for equal work for women, more women in politics, meaningful wages with benefits,  effective action on climate change among all parties, a true openness to diversity, a universal and caring healthcare system, a lessening of the gap between rich and poor, a nation ruled by law not spiteful politics.And they want to be able to afford a house.  Presently, 42.1% of Millennials in Ontario are still living at home.  Most are working but never for a wage that could provide a home.  Plus, chances of affording a mortgage are greatly curtailed by the carrying of significant student debts that will endure for years, even decades.While we might be witnessing a conservative swing in Canada and elsewhere, it remains relatively puny compared to the tidal wave of generational change about to break upon us.  There are now 10 million Millennials residing in Canada – the largest generational cohort at 27.5% of the Canadian population.  That's bound to have an impact.The coming wave is already apparent in the leadership of the federal parties.  Elizabeth May (Green) is the eldest at 64.  Both Andrew Scheer (Conservative) and Jagmeet Singh (NDP) are only 40.  Justin Trudeau (Liberal) is 47.  The 2015 federal election vaulted Justin Trudeau from third place to majority governing status in part because newly eligible voters turned out in record numbers – 58.3% voted, representing an increase of 17.7 points over 2011.   Elections Canada reported that this was the biggest increase in turnout among this age group since it began making demographic turnout estimates in 2004.  South of the border, the American 2018 mid-terms saw a Blue Wave take over the House of Representatives, largely driven by younger voters, the majority of them women and progressive.For the first time in a generation the younger vote is showing up at polling booths and their progressive values are clear.  The only reality that can keep the generational political shift from transpiring is if that journey to the voting booth fails to occur.  That now seems unlikely.  The Conservative opportunity can only come if these younger progressives split their vote among the parties, leaving Andrew Scheer's party a direct route to government.This is the great challenge for younger Canadians.  They can vote their consciences yet still lose out on power unless they find ways to come together to shape the world they want – no easy task in a political world built on division.Glen Pearson was a career professional firefighter and is a former Member of Parliament from southwestern Ontario.  He and his wife adopted three children from South Sudan and reside in London, Ontario.  He has been the co-director of the London Food Bank for 32 years.  He writes regularly for the London Free Press and also shares his views on a blog entitled “The Parallel Parliament“.   Follow him on twitter @GlenPearson.