Canada making progress in that direction.Ottawa—What the Canadian agrifood system will look like once COVID-19 is under control is generating a lot of discussion within the sector.Two Farm Credit Canada commentaries have helped sketch out the country's progress toward being food self-reliant and note this will become more important for many countries because of the pandemic.The result could have long-term impacts for Canadian agrifood exports, says Sebastien Pouliot, Principal Agricultural Economist. “The COVID-19 pandemic has exemplified the fragility of food supplies that depend on imports. In response, several countries are developing their ag and food sectors to become more self-reliant.” That could lead to permanent changes in trade patterns.“In the longer term, a concern is that countries who were traditional buyers or sellers of a commodity may no longer be reliable,” he said. “Market diversification domestically and abroad becomes paramount to reduce the risk of the disappearance of markets.”The COVID-19 pandemic also raised issues about food self-reliance in Canada, he said. While Canada now has a trade surplus dollar-wise for food products, it's far from self-reliant in part because of our need to various food products.In 2016, Canada had an annual trade deficit for food of more than $2.8 billion. That deficit was reduced in 2017 and 2018 and turned into a $100 million surplus in 2019. In Q1 of 2020, Canada had a trade surplus for food of $578 million.“This is partly due to seasonality as the trade balance for food tends to be more positive in the winter. From March to April, exports of food dropped by $550 million while imports decreased by $184 million, causing the trade balance to become negative.”Adam Smith, an FCC Process Analyst, said the pandemic “has disrupted the food supply chain, farm to fork. And these disruptions could have lasting effects.“Trade has been an important component of the continued expansion of Canada's agriculture and agri-food sectors. Our ag and food exports totalled $68.5 billion in 2019, with both exports to the U.S. and the rest of the world recording 88 per cent and 71 per cent growth in the last 10 years. Traditional trading partners such as the U.S., Europe, and Japan will remain key markets.”While China's population makes it an important market, “there are also other Asian economies like Vietnam and Indonesia where our ag and food exports grew 548 per cent and 253 per cent over the last decade.”Smith warns that “A future backlash against trade is possible from countries that associate self-sufficiency with food security. However, there's reason to be optimistic as World Trade Organization members reported many new trade standards and regulations. Still, half of them were intended to facilitate trade, especially when it comes to food. And early year-to-date export numbers suggest that export disruptions have been minimal in the agrifood industry.”The April food trade figures were affected by sweeping shutdowns caused by the pandemic, said Margaret Zafiriou, Research Associate with the Canadian Agri-food Policy Institute. “Animal food, fruit and veg preparations, dairy products, and seafood, with meat preparations, grain and oilseeds, sugar and confectioneries and bakeries and tortillas, while still in surplus, deteriorated somewhat."Other food manufacturing actually improved its surplus situation in April. Of course, beverage manufacturing which is always in deficit, has been deteriorating every month since December 2019 and reached $419 million in April.”Alex Binkley is a freelance journalist and writes for domestic and international publications about agriculture, food and transportation issues. He's also the author of two science fiction novels with more in the works.