Last Friday, Ontario Premier Doug Ford declared that if Pearson airport were under his control he would “shut it down.” Meanwhile, federal Health Minister Patty Hajdu was talking up Ottawa's plans to create “vaccine passports" so that Canadians can start traveling again.It's a curious conjunction of deepening crisis and rising optimism. It may also be an early sign of a more complicated future in which international travel, like the virus, is mutating.First, the positive news. Vaccinations are steaming toward completion. According to Theresa Tam, the number of new cases should start to decline in May, hence Hajdu's interest in vaccine passports. They would allow citizens from one country to prove to other countries that they are fully vaccinated or have tested negative for the virus. G7 members are apparently already having these discussions. The EU is making strides on a sophisticated system of its own.Doug Ford has a different view of the border question. The potent B1.617 variant arrived in Canada two weeks ago on international flights and is now spreading through Ontario. Although the federal government quickly halted further fights to and from India, the premier sees this as too little, too late. In his view, the virus should never have arrived, and he used his press conference to hammer that point. Open borders, he warned, risk plunging us into yet a fourth wave, fueled by “vaccine-resistant variants.”This should give everyone pause. While Canadian politicians talk openly about how variants can increase transmission, or even make the virus more deadly, they have tiptoed around the subject of vaccine-resistant variants, and it's not hard to see why.In locking down their communities, they have pleaded with citizens to “hang in there” and to “work together” to get to the finish line. Vaccines provide the hope that keeps many communities going. They are not just a promising solution to the pandemic, they are the only solution, and no one wants to contemplate a return to the starting gate.Nevertheless, the premier of Canada's largest province has put that scenario squarely on the table: Shut down the borders, he says, or the pandemic may never end. Is he right? There is a story to tell here, one which sees India as the tip of a massive iceberg.The World Health Organization reports that a small number of wealthier countries – including Canada, the US, and EU members – have bought 90 per cent of the world's vaccine supply, leaving only a fraction for everyone else.As a result, billions of people in poorer countries around the world won't be immunized before 2023 or 2024, at the earliest. In effect, whole regions of the globe are becoming petri dishes where variants can flourish.Last month the People's Vaccine Alliance delivered a chilling message, especially for countries at the front of the vaccination cue. When the PVA surveyed 77 epidemiologists from 28 countries, it found that:
- Eighty-eight per cent believe that the huge number of unvaccinated people means that vaccine-resistant mutations are likely to appear.
- Sixty-six per cent expect this to happen within a year; another 18.2 per cent expect it within two years.