Independent analysis shows shocking impact of proposed federal fertilizer reduction rules

Pre-election battle with the Trudeau government poised to resume.Ottawa—Armed with an independent study that backs its claims, the Western Canadian Wheat Growers Association (WCWGA) is restarting its battle against farm fertilizer reduction rules Environment Canada mooted earlier this year.An analysis by the accounting firm Meyers Norris Penny looked at the impact of the fertilizer reduction plan proposed by the department on corn, canola, and spring wheat, the big three grain crops in Canada. WCWGA and many other farm groups have blasted the Environment Canada plan.The proposed rules would lead to a $1.8 billion drop in production in 2023 climbing to a $10.4 billion reduction by 2030, MNP said in the study commissioned by Fertilizer Canada. “The estimated lost production has significant effects on Canada's ability to fill domestic processing capacity such as canola crushing facilities as well as export capacity.“Assuming that domestic capacity will be filled first, it is estimated that by 2030 most Canadian exports of canola will not exist as only 750,000 tonnes of canola will be theoretically available for export compared to more than 10 million tonnes today. The reduction in annual spring wheat exports is estimated to be 4.2 million tonnes by 2030.“The analysis for the three crops, as well as any potential impacts for other crops, will significantly impact Canada's ability to reach its targets for domestic sales and exports of agri-food products and thereby have a major detriment to the Canadian agri-food economy,” MNP said. “Finally, reducing Canada's contribution to the global food supply by more than 14 million tonnes collectively of wheat and canola per year by 2030 would have a major impact on the global supply of food in the future.”MNP said, “There are lots of ways farmers can react to potential economic impacts of reduced fertilizer use, including acceptance of lower productivity. This would be devastating, such that any plan to reduce carbon emissions would need to be done in a way that the future productivity of major crops is maintained.”WCWGA President Lorne Gunter said his group is shocked by the findings of MNP report. “The accumulated cost to individual farmers is enormous. These losses cannot be passed on to the end consumer because grain and oilseed production is priced on the world market. This has serious implications on Canada's food security.“This analysis shows the proposed Canadian changes have the possibility of devastating our agriculture value chain. Farmers don't need the government to tell them how to properly use fertilizer. We engage crop consultants, soil tests and use the latest technology available to us. Our government should be strongly supporting the agronomic techniques that we have put into practice,” he said.Canadian farmers are net-zero emitters. “With the many agricultural and technological advances that have been made over the past two decades, Canadian farmers have been leading the charge around healthy soils and carbon sequestration.”His daughter Fiona said the impact on every farmer's bottom line “makes me question whether there is a future for me as a farmer in Canada. Many of my peers will be questioning their farming future as well.”