Markets Raise Bets on Bank of Canada Hikes as Oil Fears Mount
Markets see the Bank of Canada hiking interest rates more aggressively this year amid surging oil prices and hawkish messaging from peer central banks.
Erik Hertzberg
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Eight Charts Show ‘Rupture’ With Canada Under Trump’s Tariffs
Rajan Arora is no stranger to trade turmoil between Canada and the US. Just two days after taking over a small steel-producing firm in southern Ontario in 2018, President Donald Trump slapped 25% tariffs on the metal. Business slowed at Roden Manufacturing, creating cash flow problems for the company.
Oil Spike on Iran War Seen Boosting Canada’s Growth, Inflation
A sustained rise in oil prices would lift Canada’s economic growth and inflation outlook, Bank of Nova Scotia says. The war in Iran has already pushed petroleum prices higher, which may increase what Canada — a major crude-producing country — earns from exports relative to what it spends on imports.
Bank of Canada's Rogers Urges Small and Medium Firms to Invest in AI
The Bank of Canada’s second-in-command is warning of future inflation risks if investment in artificial intelligence is concentrated among the country’s big companies. Article content Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn Rogers said that while large firms have the scale and capacity to make “big bets on technology,” the country’s ailing productivity is more likely to be repaired if there’s broader adoption...
Import Costs Driving Canada Food Inflation, BOC Research Says
Bank of Canada research suggests the acceleration in food inflation last year was almost entirely due to rising import costs, not domestic factors. The total annual change in food costs, excluding fruits and vegetables, was 3.1% in 2025, and 2.7 percentage points of that increase was due to direct imports, imported inputs and international shipping costs, according to research released...
Powell Gets ‘Full Support’ of Bank of Canada’s Macklem Amid Justice Probe.
Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem offered a staunch backing of Jerome Powell after the Federal Reserve chair said the central bank had been served with grand jury subpoenas. “I reiterate my full support for Federal Reserve Board Chair Jay Powell, who reflects the very best in public service,” Macklem said Monday in an emailed statement to Bloomberg News.
Canadian Oil Pipeline Gets Political Boost From Trump's Venezuela Shock
President Donald Trump’s push to unlock Venezuelan crude is strengthening the political case for a proposed pipeline that would allow Canada to ship more oil to China and other Asian markets. Refineries in the American Midwest are configured to process Canada’s heavy crude. But prices for the commodity slumped Monday as traders worried that the removal of Venezuelan President Nicolas...
Budget Watchdog Regrets Calling Canada’s Fiscal Position ‘Stupefying’
Canada’s budget watchdog is walking back his most charged criticisms of Mark Carney's fiscal policy, but says the government's decision to drop its debt-to-GDP guideline is a major shift that warrants more public debate.
Bank of Canada to Cut 10% of Staff as Carney Hunts for Savings
The Bank of Canada is planning to eliminate hundreds of jobs, about 10% of its workforce, as part of Prime Minister Mark Carney’s bid to reduce government expenses. About 225 employees at the central bank will be affected, according to a memo seen by Bloomberg News. The cuts will take place “over the next few months” and be completed by...
Canada's Finance Minister Says Budget Will 'Crowd In' Private Investment
Canada’s finance minister says his upcoming fiscal plan aims to “crowd in” private investment as the federal government ramps up capital spending on major projects and cuts regulations. Article content “What people will see in the next budget is fiscal discipline, a shift toward capital formation and a shift toward long-term prosperity,” Francois-Philippe Champagne said in an interview with Bloomberg...
IMF Chief Says Canada Has Fiscal Room to Boost Capital Spending
The head of the International Monetary Fund says Canada has the fiscal room to make productivity-boosting investments, and praised the federal government’s proposed changes to budget timing.
Canada's Deficit to Surge to $100 Billion, NBF's Marion Says
One of Canada’s major lenders says Prime Minister Mark Carney will push the country’s deficit to about 3% of its gross domestic product as his government pursues major projects and tries to attract more investment. Stefane Marion, National Bank of Canada’s chief economist, said he expects Ottawa’s fiscal shortfall will reach C$100 billion ($72 billion) this fiscal year, more than...
Macklem Backs Canada's Fiscal Shift, Says Tough Reforms Needed
Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem offered a subtle endorsement of the government’s plans to spend on infrastructure, saying policymakers in the past have not done enough to boost productivity and real incomes. Article content Output per worker stagnated during the decade Justin Trudeau was prime minister as he prioritized policies to redistribute wealth. Since taking power in March, Mark...
Economists See Canada Deficit Surging to C$70 Billion on Trade War
Analysts expect Prime Minister Mark Carney to push the federal government’s budget deeper into the red as Canada ramps up spending to bolster its military and infrastructure.
Repo Market Strains Return as Bank of Canada Winds Down QT
Funding issues are cropping up in Canada’s money markets again, prompting some analysts to recommend the central bank step in. Article content The Canadian Overnight Repo Rate Average, or Corra, has settled 5 basis points above the Bank of Canada’s overnight rate for most of September. On a weekly basis, that’s the widest spread since January and if it persists...
'Putrid' Canada Jobs Report Heaps Pressure on Carney and BOC
The Canadian economy shed jobs for a second consecutive month and the unemployment rate rose to a four-year high, increasing the odds of an interest-rate cut from the Bank of Canada this month.
Canadian Economy Shrinks 1.6% as Trade War Crushes Exports
The Canadian economy contracted for the first time in nearly two years as the trade war with the US pummeled exports and business investment. The Canadian economy contracted for the first time in nearly two years as the trade war with the US pummeled exports and business investment. Article content Canada’s gross domestic product shrank at a 1.6% annualized pace...
Carney’s Tariff Shift Helps Business and Creates a Political Headache
Prime Minister Mark Carney’s decision to remove many tariffs on imports from the US comes after a series of warnings from businesses and analysts that the levies were inflicting economic damage on Canada. On Friday, Carney announced th
Bank of Canada Holds at 2.75%, Keeps Door Open for More Cuts
The Bank of Canada left interest rates unchanged, citing uncertainty posed by US tariffs, but kept the door open to more cuts if the economy weakens and inflation pressures stay in check.
Retaliatory Tariffs Padding Canada’s Finances as Expenses Rise
Canada’s retaliatory tariffs on US goods are partially offsetting weaker revenue from corporate and sales taxes as federal government expenditures continue to rise.
Debt Demands Rise in Canada as Carney Prepares More Spending
The supply of Canada’s government debt is set to hit a record this fiscal year as Prime Minister Mark Carney pledges to use the federal balance sheet to make investments in the economy. Article content Gross issuance — the amount of government of Canada bonds and treasury bills put to market — is expected to rise to C$612 billion this...
Canada’s Budget Watchdog Urges Carney to Show Numbers as Spending Rises
Canada’s budget watchdog urged Prime Minister Mark Carney to release an update on the federal government’s finances soon or risk eroding the government’s credibility with investors. Carney is promising to spend billions on infrastructure, military equipment, housing and transportation — part of his ambitious agenda to boost the potential of the Canadian economy. Those plans, combined with slow economic growth...
Canada Firms Flock to Government Program to Avoid Layoffs Amid Tariffs
A Canadian government program that aims to minimize layoffs by providing benefits to workers who agree to work fewer hours has seen its uptake double in about half a year. Article content As of June 8, there were 799 so-called work-sharing agreements with employers in Canada, up from 399 in November, according to government data shared with Bloomberg News.
Carney’s Budget Delay Adds to Economic Uncertainty in Canada, Analysts Say
Prime Minister Mark Carney’s decision to delay Canada’s budget until later this year increases economic uncertainty but isn’t likely to spark worries among investors, say a majority of economists in a Bloomberg survey. Carney announced after winning an April election that he would push back an update of the country’s fiscal picture, typically delivered in the first half of the...
Carney aims to thwart Trump's tariff assault by unlocking internal trade
Prime Minister Mark Carney is pushing to offset the economic pain caused by United States President Donald Trump’s tariffs by compelling Canadian provinces to liberalize trade with one another.
Powell Gets Support From Bank of Canada’s Macklem Amid Trump Attacks
Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem offered support to Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell from US President Donald Trump’s attacks, as the Canadian policymaker called the independence of central banks “sacrosanct.”
Canada’s Election Winner Faces Economy That’s Near Recession
Canada’s next prime minister is set to inherit a half-year of flat economic growth, economists predict, an immediate test of their governance as President Donald Trump’s trade war grinds business investment and exports lower. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg see the economy contracting 0.2% in the second quarter and no growth in the third quarter. That would put it on the...
Scotiabank Economists Slam Both Major Party Platforms in Canada
Economists at one of Canada’s biggest lenders are raising doubts about the fiscal plans offered by the leading parties in the country’s election.
Canada’s Conservatives Pledge to Cut Taxes, Shrink Deficits
Canada’s Conservative Party is promising to run smaller deficits than the incumbent Liberals as it bets heavily on tax cuts and deregulation spurring an economic boom, especially in the country’s energy sector.
An Election Like No Other Promises to Damage Canada's Finances
Canada’s fiscal position is set to worsen as the country’s two leading political parties vie to win an election by promising tax cuts and measures to protect industries from US President Donald Trump’s tariff barrage.
Canada's Election Hinges on Who Can Fix an Economy Under US Threat
Prime Minister Mark Carney is expected to plunge Canada into an election campaign on Sunday, as US President Donald Trump’s trade war sharpens the focus on fixing long-standing problems that have hindered the Canadian economy.
Small business optimism in Canada collapses to 25-year low
Optimism among Canada’s small and medium-sized firms fell to the lowest level in at least a quarter-century after the US started a trade war with the country, according to the Canadian Federation of Independent Business. The CFIB’s Business Barometer index fell to 25 this month, according to a flash poll of 1,065 firms taken between March 5 and March 7...
Trump Tariffs to Drive Canada Into Recession, Cause Price Spike
Canada’s economy is headed for a contraction — the first since the Covid-19 crisis — if a tariff war with its largest trading partner lasts for long.
Macklem Says ‘Not the Time’ to Rethink 2% Inflation Target
Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem launched the central bank’s review of its framework, but strongly suggested that officials are likely to re-endorse the bank’s current approach to targeting 2% inflation.
Bank of Canada Adds Second Outsider to Rate-Setting Council
The Ottawa-based central bank announced that Alexopoulos, a professor of economics at the University of Toronto, would join the bank’s governing council for a two-year term starting March 17. She joins the policymaking body as the second external deputy governor.
Canada's soft landing in jeopardy as Bank of Canada's Macklem faces Trump tariffs
Governor Tiff Macklem has successfully wrestled down one of the worst inflationary crises in the Bank of Canada’s history, putting his nation on track for a soft landing. U.S. president-elect Donald Trump may dismantle all that with a stroke of a pen.
Canada Under Pressure to Respond to Trump’s Tax Cut Regime
Donald Trump’s planned tax cuts would wipe out Canada’s slim corporate tax advantage, likely driving more capital from the northern nation and deepening its productivity crisis. Canada’s federal corporate income tax rate is 15%, compared to 21% in the US. After accounting for provincial and state levies, the two countries are roughly similar, with the corporate rate between 25% and...
Foreign Investment Into Canada Steadied Ahead of Trump Election
Foreign direct investment into Canada remained steady in the third quarter, an encouraging sign that businesses continued to park capital in the northern nation even as uncertainty mounted ahead of the US election. FDI totaled C$27.1 billion ($19.3 billion) in the three months between July and September, Statistics Canada reported Thursday from Ottawa, driven by merger and acquisition activity and...
Trudeau Reopens Spending Playbook, Shaking Up Bets for Rates, Growth
Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau signaled a return to his free-spending playbook as inflation wanes and an election looms, accelerating a bond selloff due to expectations of faster growth and a deeper deficit. Most Read from Bloomberg
Trudeau Government Has Likely Blown Fiscal Anchor, Watchdog Says
Canada’s budgetary watchdog says Justin Trudeau’s government has likely blown past a self-imposed fiscal guardrail, and is warning about the consequences of delaying the release of final spending and revenue numbers. Yves Giroux, the country’s parliamentary budget officer, expects the federal government ran a deficit of C$46.8 billion in 2023-24. That’s deeper than the C$40 billion forecast by Finance Minister...
Bank of Canada Warns of ‘Tinkering’ With Mortgage Rules
The Bank of Canada’s second in command cautioned against “tinkering too much with the mortgage market” to fix housing affordability. Canada’s high home prices are primarily a function of a supply and demand imbalance, and the fix “will take time,” Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn Rogers said Wednesday in Toronto. While she said she was encouraged by “governments at all levels”...
Bank of Canada in Position to Accelerate Rate Cuts: Decision Guide
The Bank of Canada is likely to make a jumbo cut to interest rates, acknowledging that borrowing costs should fall more quickly as inflation wanes and economic growth stagnates. Markets and economists expect policymakers led by Governor Tiff Macklem will cut the policy rate by half a percentage point to 3.75% on Wednesday, the first reduction of that magnitude since...
Former Bank of Canada Official Sees Jumbo Rate Cut in October
An ex-member of the Bank of Canada’s governing body said officials should cut borrowing costs by half a percentage point later this month. There are “good reasons” to move interest rates “back to as close to neutral as quickly as possible,” former Deputy Governor Paul Beaudry said, including boosting household and business optimism. Now that policymakers are more sure that...
Poloz Hears Proposals for New Fund to Pull Canada’s Pension Managers Back Home
Former Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz is examining a list of ideas to get the country’s pension funds to invest more in the domestic economy – including the creation of a pooled fund that would make dealmaking easier for some of them. People in the industry have also told him the government may need to change regulations for pension...
Canada Yield Curve Disinverts With Fed and Macklem Eyeing Cuts
Canada’s benchmark two-year yield briefly dropped below the 10-year for the first time in more than two years, as traders looked ahead to Federal Reserve cuts and Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem made dovish comments to the Financial Times.
Bank of Canada Seen Cutting Rates Deeper, Faster Over Next Year
Economists see the Bank of Canada cutting interest rates for a third consecutive meeting next week, continuing what’s anticipated to be a steady downward trend in borrowing costs over the next year as inflation eases.
Trudeau's Tax Hikes Risk Worsening Canada's Struggle for Capital
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s government has turned to raising taxes on businesses to help fund Canada’s budget, adding headwinds to an economy that’s already struggling to attract investment.
CIBC says Bank of Canada must end or fix quantitative tightening
The Bank of Canada needs to wrap up its quantitative tightening program or fix distortions in short-term funding markets that are keeping effective interest rates higher, according to Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce strategists. Canada’s central bank has been shrinking its balance sheet for more than two years, withdrawing the extraordinary stimulus it provided during the Covid-19 crisis. Assets have...
Tory leader widens gap over Trudeau on economy in Canada poll
The leader of Canada’s Conservative Party has opened up a bigger lead among voters on the question of who would be the best economic manager, underscoring the political challenges faced by Prime Minister Justin Trudeau. About 30% of respondents in a recent Nanos Research Group survey for Bloomberg say they trust Pierre Poilievre the most among national party leaders to...
Bank of Canada to Explain Its Pandemic Actions as Political Tides Shift
The Bank of Canada is doing a formal review of its pandemic-era policies, when it bought hundreds of billions in government bonds to suppress interest rates. It may represent a last chance for Governor Tiff Macklem to explain himself before one of his fiercest critics comes to power.
Bank of Canada Defends Bond Buying, Guidance During Pandemic
A Bank of Canada official defended the use of quantitative easing and extraordinary forward guidance during the pandemic, pushing back on criticisms that the policy actions were missteps that fueled inflation.
Trudeau's spring budget has Canadian firms worried about new taxes
Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland’s upcoming budget has some in Canada’s business community concerned there will be tax increases to offset new government spending. Freeland and Prime Minister Justin Trudeau will almost certainly bring in a package of tools to boost housing supply in the April 16 budget, according to people familiar with the government’s plans, and may commit additional spending...
Immigration surprises are making the Bank of Canada's job harder
Record-breaking immigration is muddying the economic picture for the Bank of Canada, distorting key statistics and making its battle against inflation more difficult. A surge of newcomers – largely driven by an unplanned spike in foreign students and temporary workers – has pushed Canada’s population growth rate to 3.2 per cent, one of the fastest in the world.