Ian Campbell

Abbas Rana, Ian Campbell

B.C. Liberal MP Weiler read a letter to Trudeau and caucus on behalf of dissenting MPs, calling for the prime minister’s resignation

Two-term B.C. Liberal MP Patrick Weiler read out a letter to Prime Minister Justin Trudeau at the party’s national caucus meeting on Oct. 28, telling the full Liberal caucus that 24 MPs have signed the document calling for the leader’s resignation by Oct. 28, according to Liberal sources.Weiler (West Vancouver—Sunshine Coast—Sea to Sky Country, B.C.), who was unavailable for an interview by deadline, was the first speaker at the highly anticipated Oct. 23 Liberal national caucus meeting. The letter was later handed over to Trudeau (Papineau, Que.). The document contained only the text of the letter, but not the signatures of the 24 dissident MPs.

Ian Campbell, Abbas Rana

Liberal caucus should have adopted Reform Act for process to oust Trudeau, says MP Casey

Having the mechanism would provide ‘more structure’ and make any decision ‘a bit more final,’ says Liberal MP John McKay. ‘It may not be a happy result’ but it would be a ‘clear expression’ of the will of caucus.

Ian Campbell

It’s hard for politicians to ‘resist the temptation’ of using intelligence for ‘partisan purposes’: ex-CSIS official

As sharp criticisms are levied at both the prime minister and opposition leader following a combative exchange on foreign interference, the controversy shows an “inherent flaw” in the way politicians use intelligence, says a former CSIS official.This week saw a display of “using intelligence reporting for partisan purposes,” said Dan Stanton, a former executive manager at the Canadian Security Intelligence Service.

Ian Campbell

Atlantic Liberals feel ‘dramatic’ drag of Trudeau’s unpopularity, says pollster

The growing assertiveness of Atlantic Liberals in expressing their concerns about Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s leadership shows they “have their finger on the pulse” of the clear electoral threat they face, says a Halifax-based pollster.Margaret Brigley, CEO of Narrative Research, told The Hill Times that Liberals have “a lot to lose” in the region, and a number of seats are at stake.That pressure may be driving some of these MPs to press Trudeau (Papineau, Que.) to reconsider whether he is the best choice to lead the party in the next campaign.

Ian Campbell

‘Not surprising’ Trudeau regrets breaking electoral reform pledge as Conservatives soar, says Fair Vote Canada

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s recent comments on electoral reform appear designed to mend fences with those he alienated when he broke a key 2015 campaign promise, say observers, but the message has missed the mark with one of the main groups advocating for changes to how Canadians vote.

Ian Campbell

Liberals at a ‘breaking point’ as polls show ‘deep truth’ of historic challenges they face, says author

The author of a book about how the federal Liberals dominated politics for most of Canadian history says the party is at a “breaking point” when it comes to maintaining that position.Richard Johnston, an emeritus political science professor at the University of British Columbia, and author of the book The Canadian Party System: An Analytic History, told The Hill Times the latest round of federal polls point to a “deep truth” about the long-term challenges the Liberals face.

Ian Campbell

Fight over MAID shifts from Parliament back to the courts amid political stalemate

With both advocates and opponents of medical assistance in dying at odds with Canada’s current MAID laws, the fight is shifting from Parliament back to the courts.On Sept. 26, a coalition of disability rights groups, alongside two individual plaintiffs, announced a Charter challenge of track two MAID—available to those whose death is not reasonably foreseeable—on the grounds that it has “resulted in premature deaths and an increase in discrimination and stigma towards people with disabilities.”

Ian Campbell

‘A lot of tension’ in both Ottawa and Quebec City sparks shifting alliances between parties

As Bloc Québécois Leader Yves-François Blanchet amps up his pressure on the Liberal government, how his party leverages its newly influential position in Parliament will likely spur more interplay between federal and provincial counterparts in the coming months, say observers.

Ian Campbell

Parties appear ‘unwilling’ to ‘manage their own house’ amid foreign interference in nominations: national security expert

Elections Canada is preparing recommendations seeking to strengthen the security of nominations and leadership races, but so far the federal political parties seem to want to “kick the can down the road” rather than “fix it,” says national security expert Stephanie Carvin.

Ian Campbell

Senators praise PBO report to release ‘crucial’ public accounts earlier, but government reluctant to commit to changes

The parliamentary budget officer’s proposal calling for Ottawa’s year-end financial reports to be released on an earlier timeline is drawing praise from parliamentarians, but the government isn’t yet willing to commit to the advice.

Ian Campbell

NDP growth and Tory ground game spell ‘doomsday’ scenario for Liberals: Nanos

In the wake of another “epic disaster” byelection, Liberals should be seriously concerned about the “doomsday scenario” of New Democrats passing them as the primary alternative to the Conservatives, as well as vote splits on the left delivering a “massive” Pierre Poilievre win, says pollster Nik Nanos“The Liberals have to realize that perhaps their first opponent is actually Jagmeet Singh now that he’s pulled out of the parliamentary arrangement,” said Nanos.

Ian Campbell

Blame games on politically-targeted bot campaigns ‘irresponsible’ without verification, says researcher

The lead researcher in a report debunking Conservative ties to a bot campaign backing Pierre Poilievre says politicians and the media should stick to verified information given the lag time to investigate the activity’s origins.Aengus Bridgman, director of the Media Ecosystem Observatory at McGill University, was the co-ordinating force behind a team of academics at multiple universities that analyzed the incident. On Aug. 28, his team released a report that found “no evidence” a Canadian political party or foreign actor was behind the network that posted to the social media platform X. Instead, it appeared to be an amateur experiment, though he said it is “impossible to know with certainty” who was behind the network.

Ian Campbell, Abbas Rana

Only pushback from members will drive party leadership to loosen grip on nominations, say campaign veterans

To ensure free, fair, and transparent nomination contests, rank-and-file party members must communicate an unequivocal message to their respective leadership that they will not accept any interference from the top, say former candidates and party insiders.

Ian Campbell

‘All bets are off’: Liberal-NDP rupture leaves ‘the clock ticking’ on Parliament’s lifecycle

NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh’s abrupt departure from his party’s deal with the Liberals will shorten the lifecycle of this Parliament, and put all political parties on a collision course when the House of Commons resumes in less than two weeks, say observers.

Ian Campbell

Cabinet retreat policy announcements show Liberals ‘waking up,’ but lack ‘unique vision,’ says pollster

Policy announcements from the Liberal cabinet retreat are a “rear-guard action” aimed at “stealing their opponent’s thunder,” but fall short of “a unique Liberal vision” to move the country forward, says pollster Greg Lyle.The Liberals wrapped up a three-day cabinet retreat on Aug. 27 in Halifax, where several key policy announcements tackled similar issues or ideas to those highlighted by Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre (Carleton, Ont.) as his party has risen in the polls.

Abbas Rana, Ian Campbell

Liberal-NDP supply-and-confidence deal and U.S. engagement top items on cabinet retreat agenda

Against the backdrop of a record number of Atlantic Canadians voicing dissatisfaction with the Liberal government’s performance, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s cabinet will gather in Halifax for a crucial three-day retreat.The retreat will focus on strategizing for the fall sitting of Parliament with key agenda items including the Liberal-NDP supply-and-confidence agreement, and Canada-U.S. relations.

Ian Campbell

If labour dispute goes ‘sideways’ it could derail Liberal cabinet retreat, says Nanos

With pushback from the Teamsters union giving new legs to a labour disruption the Liberal government attempted to put to bed on Thursday, the matter risks becoming “another example of something that’s going sideways for the Liberals” on the eve of their cabinet retreat, says pollster Nik Nanos.“For a government that’s trailing in the double digits, its main fixation is probably trying to drive the agenda as opposed to being driven by events,” said Nanos in an interview with The Hill Times.

Ian Campbell

Growing interest in health-care reform, but private payment still ‘too risky’ for parties to propose, says Coletto

Persistent strain on Canada’s health-care system has led to a growing appetite for reform, but it’s unlikely any party would call for more private payment options because the political risk still far outweighs the reward, says pollster David Coletto.Coletto, CEO of Abacus Data, recently conducted a poll on “third rails” in Canadian politics, looking at a variety of hot-button issues. One question asked voters if they would support a party allowing Canadians to “pay to access most health-care procedures.”

Ian Campbell

Markets see ‘settling of nerves’ after dramatic drop, but recession talk is ‘brutally devastating’ for governments, say observers

Investors’ nerves are beginning to settle after a rocky few days for markets in Canada and around the world, but the word “recession” creeping into the news is never a welcome sign for governments approaching an election, says pollster Nik Nanos.“A recession in the lead up or during an election campaign can be brutally devastating for any incumbent government,” said Nanos. “The same way that when the economic numbers are good, a government can point to … ‘Look how wonderful things are’ as a validation of why a government might deserve another mandate.”

Ian Campbell

‘Going to be a dog fight’: Libs in Newfoundland prepare for toughest electoral fight in a decade without high-profile minister Seamus O’Regan

After three consecutive landslide wins by outgoing former federal cabinet minister Seamus O’Regan, Liberals living on Newfoundland’s Avalon Peninsula are gearing up for some much tougher battles in that region in the next campaign, but they also believe they can hold the former minster’s seat.“There hasn’t been a competitive election in St. John’s South-Mount Pearl for 10 years,” said Charlie Byrne, O’Regan’s 2019 campaign manager, in an interview with The Hill Times. “This will be a competitive election.”

Ian Campbell

Shrink government revenues? Grow TFSA room? Economists weigh in on what a Poilievre tax-reform panel could—or should—consider

In the wake of Pierre Poilievre’s commitment to launch a tax-reform task force in the early days of a potential Conservative government, economists are split on what they think such a panel might—or should—do.In a June 11 video outlining his response to the government’s plan to hike the capital gains inclusion rate, Poilievre (Carleton, Ont.) committed to appointing a “tax-reform task force” within the first 60 days of a Conservative government. He said this group would be comprised of “entrepreneurs, investors, farmers, but no lobbyists,” and that it would be asked to “design a bring-it-home tax cut.”

Ian Campbell

Trudeau’s leadership faces further stress tests in series of coming byelections

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is facing at least four more public tests of his leadership, with a “mixed bag” of upcoming byelections that could either shift a losing narrative or produce an “accumulation effect” of losses that cast further doubt on his future, say pollsters.The looming byelections—spread across four provinces \with different electoral dynamics—come in the wake of the shocking Liberal byelection loss in Toronto-St. Paul’s, Ont. The June 24 vote saw a once safe Liberal seat held by the party for over 30 years fall to Conservative challenger Don Stewart. That sparked serious questions about Trudeau’s (Papineau, Que.) leadership of the Liberal Party, and caused growing caucus discontent to spill into the public sphere.

Ian Campbell

‘So damn offensive’: NSICOP and Hogue findings on media raise serious concern about covert targeting of Canadian journalists

Covertly placing narratives in Canadian media that forward the interests of foreign states is an “ultimate goal of foreign influence and information operations,” and the findings on this topic in two recent national security reports should be of top concern, says disinformation expert Marcus Kolga.

Ian Campbell, Stephen Jeffery, Abbas Rana

Caucus disquiet grows after Toronto-St. Paul’s byelection upset as Liberals face ‘catastrophic loss’ with status quo

For the Trudeau government, the writing has been on the wall since November, and ‘despite their best efforts, they haven't been able to get up off the floor,’ says pollster Greg Lyle.The Toronto-St. Paul’s, Ont., byelection has launched a fresh round of speculation about Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s future, with two former Liberal ministers warning of fatigue with the current leader and adding to ongoing concerns within caucus.The byelection confirmed what the polls have been saying for over a year—that the public is “deeply anxious about the state of Canada” and they “want change,” says pollster David Coletto.

Ian Campbell

‘Stark reality’: Toronto-St. Paul’s byelection loss shows no seat safe for Liberals, politicos warn

The Conservatives’ capture of the Toronto-St. Paul’s seat—a Liberal fortress for decades—shows “the polls have become a reality” for Prime Minister Justin Trudeau with a Canadian population “hugely” interested in change, says pollster Darrell Bricker.“It brings into stark reality how steep and high the hill is that the Liberals have to climb to get competitive again,” Bricker told The Hill Times following the June 24 Conservative byelection upset in the downtown Toronto riding.

Ian Campbell

Hogue says nominations a ‘gateway’ for foreign interference, but Marland says parties ‘wary about the state having rules limiting what they do’

Foreign interference has put a spotlight on longstanding concerns about the process for nominating political candidates, but so far the main federal parties are not committing to some key recommendations to address this security gap.Bill C-70, the government’s foreign interference bill—which received royal assent on June 20—will make some key changes, including making it a criminal offence to conduct foreign interference in a political process such as a nomination race.

Ian Campbell

‘A permissive environment’: four security gaps flagged by NSICOP where Ottawa has been slow to act

The prospect of parliamentarians aiding foreign powers has captured near-total focus following an explosive foreign interference report, but the document also highlights larger policy issues that make Canada’s institutions “easy targets” for this activity—and says the government has been slow to act.The Special Report on Foreign Interference in Canada’s Democratic Processes and Institutions, authored by the National Security and Intelligence Committee of Parliamentarians (NSICOP), was tabled in Parliament on June 3.

Ian Campbell

Liberals ‘got what they wanted’ on capital gains vote, but success depends on which ‘narrative wins out,’ say observers

Now that the Conservatives have come out against the capital gains tax hike, the political fallout from the Liberal wedge issue will come down to each party’s framing, and whether the tax motivates voters when they go to the polls.Just shy of two months after Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland (University-Rosedale, Ont.) first unveiled proposed changes to the capital gains tax in Budget 2024, the Liberals have finally instigated the legislative process to make that change, and the Conservative Party has revealed its position on the issue. The Liberal government is planning to change the inclusion rate on capital gains from one-half to two-thirds for businesses, as well as for

Ian Campbell

Rate cut welcome news for Liberals, but won’t shift voter views on economic record, say politicos

The Bank of Canada’s rate cut is welcome news for the Liberals, but not enough to change their political fortunes, say observers.After 10 straight interest rate hikes that began in March 2022 and culminated in July 2023—taking the rate from 0.25 per cent to five per cent—Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem announced on June 5 that the central bank would lower its key overnight lending rate by 25 basis points, down to 4.75 per cent. This marks the first rate cut since March 2020 when the central bank began aggressively slashing rates in response to the COVID-19 pandemic.

Ian Campbell

B.C. voter data complainant calls out microtargeting, as parties mum on next steps after court loss

A private citizen behind a complaint that has led to tighter privacy rules for political parties is calling a recent court ruling a “vindication,” while a former Conservative Party president says the decision leaves the country’s rules for political parties “balkanized,” and should be appealed.

Ian Campbell

Liberal budget comms ‘a miss’ at catching young voters, unlikely to achieve ‘narrative shift,’ say pollsters

The government’s attempts at reaching younger voters through a pre- and post-budget media blitz may not be delivering the results the Liberals had wanted.Alex Kohut, a former Liberal Party pollster and PMO staffer, told The Hill Times that polls show a slight uptick in awareness about the fiscal plan among younger voters when compared to previous years.

Ian Campbell

Budget’s ‘slow rollout’ pharmacare funding leaves program vulnerable to change in governments, say policy experts

The timeline and funding for pharmacare laid out in last week’s federal budget points to a slow rollout plan, and a program that could easily be discontinued by a future government, say policy experts.The April 16 budget set aside just shy of $1.5-billion for pharmacare over five years. That includes $59-million to be spent in the current fiscal year, with that amount set to grow in subsequent years. The budget allots $121-million for 2025-26, $358-million for 2026-27, and $477-million in both 2027-28 and 2028-29. The budget says this money will be used to “provide universal, single-payer coverage for a number of contraception and diabetes medications,” as part of the first phase of a national pharmacare program proposed in the government’s Pharmacare Act.

Ian Campbell

Conservatives ‘riding the stronger horse’ in competing narratives about budget: pollster Lyle

Two narratives about the 2024 federal budget set out by the finance minister and opposition leader both reflect positions the “middle ground of Canada believes,” but “the Tories are riding the stronger horse” when it comes to these messages, says pollster Greg Lyle.On April 16, Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland (University-Rosedale, Ont.) tabled her fourth budget in the House of Commons, which proposed $52.9-billion in new spending. The budget keeps the deficit below $40-billion in the coming fiscal year, as projected in last fall’s fiscal update, but proposes to grow the deficit in later fiscal years. One key measure of the new budget is an increase to the tax inclusion rate for capital gains. The amount of capital gains earnings subject to income tax will rise from one-half to two-thirds for businesses. The same increase will apply for individuals on capital gains earned over $250,000 in a single year.

Ian Campbell

Government’s newly proposed privacy policies won’t change how federal political parties use voter data: experts

A section of the government’s new electoral reform law that deals with privacy policies for political parties appears to be designed in response to coming litigation in B.C. involving Canada’s three largest political parties, but it ultimately does not create a more robust privacy regime for the parties to follow, say multiple legal and privacy experts consulted by The Hill Times.

Ian Campbell

Polls show ‘across-the-board, generalized retreat’ from Liberals, says Coletto

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau will ‘either walk up to the edge of the next election and run, or he'll walk up to the edge of the next election and decide to retire,' so until that time Liberals should focus on how to ‘get more competitive with the current prime minister,’ says former Martin-era Liberal PMO staffer Scott Reid.

Ian Campbell

It’s difficult to ‘follow the money’: former MPs, bureaucrats, and PBOs say budget and estimates process makes it tough for Parliament to hold government spending to account

When former parliamentary budget officer Kevin Page thinks about what’s wrong with the process by which MPs scrutinize the government’s spending—a system that has been described by the current PBO as “unnecessarily complex”—he thinks about how his father might have looked at government finances if he had ever become an MP.

Ian Campbell

Attorney general calls B.C. privacy case ‘premature,’ says federal political parties can ‘self-regulate’ use of voter data: new documents

The Attorney General of Canada wants to see a B.C. court case involving federal political parties’ use of voter data sent back to the office of the B.C. privacy commissioner—a move which could further delay a resolution of the matter as the next federal election draws nearer.

Ian Campbell

‘People were drawn to him’: former prime minister Brian Mulroney could motivate his team and connect personally with rivals, say colleagues and friends

Colleagues and friends of former prime minister Brian Mulroney are remembering him for his ability to rally his political allies to the causes he believed in, while also maintaining close personal relationships through a sense of kindness and charm that allowed him to meaningfully connect with even his adversaries.

Ian Campbell

‘A lot of outstanding detail’ on pharmacare leaves program’s future riding on talks with provinces

Compromises made by both the Liberals and the NDP to achieve a pharmacare deal that’s light on details point to the relative weaknesses of both parties at this time, rather than either one having secured their preferred outcome in negotiations, says pollster Darrell Bricker.“Neither one wanted to have an election. You’ve got [NDP Leader] Jagmeet Singh saying, ‘Please do anything that I can justify in order to be able to not have to go back on this agreement,’” said Bricker in an interview with The Hill Times. “And the Liberals are saying, ‘Well, yeah, we’ll give you what you need. But I know that you’re not going to force an election.’”

Ian Campbell

Some Senators open to blocking government’s MAID legislation, while others say that’s ‘overstepping’

As the government rushes to push through legislation that would further delay legalizing medical assistance in dying for those suffering solely from mental illness until 2027, it could all come down to the will of the Senate.On Feb. 1, Health Minister Mark Holland (Ajax, Ont.) introduced legislation that would add a further three-year delay to the legalization of MAID where mental illness is the sole underlying cause. The move comes after a Special Joint Committee of the House of Commons issued a report saying that Canada was not ready for such an expansion, and the health ministers for seven provinces and three territories wrote a joint letter to Holland asking the federal government to “indefinitely pause” the expansion.

Ian Campbell

Federal Court decision on Emergencies Act may blunt a key Liberal attack against Poilievre: pollster

With two veteran judges having come down on “different sides of the line” in their view of the Trudeau government’s use of the Emergencies Act, it’s likely to “muddy” the waters politically for the Liberals on this issue, say observers.The Jan. 23 Federal Court ruling from Justice Richard Mosley, which concluded that Ottawa’s use of the Emergencies Act was “not justified,” came just shy of one year after Justice Paul Rouleau issued his findings from the Public Order Emergency Commission on Feb. 17, 2023.

Ian Campbell

Holland’s negotiating skills will determine his success in health portfolio this year, say observers

Mark Holland’s ability to communicate with a mix of force and finesse makes him the right person, politically, for the Liberals to have as health minister at this time, say observers.As health minister, “you’ve got to know when to hug someone, and when to be able to throw back a punch,” said former Liberal ministerial staffer Elliot Hughes. “That balance, I think, is a skill that is really important, and I think those are ones that Mr. Holland has in spades.”

Ian Campbell

Liberal MP Turnbull says Conservatives have ‘overstated the significance’ of Rogers’ price hike for wireless customers

Industry Parliamentary Secretary and Liberal MP Ryan Turnbull says the Conservatives are blowing Rogers’ price hike for its wireless customers out of proportion, despite the fact that Canadians still pay some of the highest prices for wireless services in the world.In an interview with The Hill Times—in which he was speaking in his capacity as a member of the government—Turnbull (Whitby, Ont.) said the Conservatives had “overstated the significance” of the recent price increase from Rogers, since many of their customers who are on a contract would not be immediately affected.

Ian Campbell

Despite growing talk of a recession in 2024, affordability remains key frame for economic issues, say observers

There’s growing talk of a possible recession in 2024, but voters will likely remain focused on concerns of affordability, and governments and political parties would be wise to do the same, say observers.Recent polling from Leger Marketing found that 72 per cent of Canadians are concerned about the possibility of a recession. Polling from Leger has also found that over 60 per cent of Canadians have believed the economy was already in a recession for most of the past year—even though the Canadian economy has not yet technically entered a recession and the past year was marked more by stagnation than negative growth.

Ian Campbell

Lots of goodwill between Liberals and NDP on pharmacare, but ever-present chance they’ll ‘mismanage the relationship,’ warns pollster Lyle

There remains enough goodwill between the Liberals and NDP for those parties to reach a deal on pharmacare in time for their newly imposed winter deadline, say former staffers. But pollster Greg Lyle cautioned that even though it is in the best interests of both parties to avoid an election in the coming months, “that doesn’t mean that they will.”On Dec. 14, the parties announced they had agreed to extend the deadline for passing legislation to create the framework for a national pharmacare program. The supply-and-confidence agreement between the two parties, established in March 2022, had called for that to be achieved by the end of 2023. The parties have now given themselves until March 1, 2024, to achieve this piece of their agreement.

Ian Campbell

Affordability will remain a top political issue in 2024 after inflation stalls in latest CPI report, say observers

The final CPI numbers for the year indicate that affordability and interest rates will remain key political and policy issues in 2024, say observers.On Dec. 19, Statistics Canada released its final Consumer Price Index (CPI) report of the year, which tracks the cost of living for Canadians. The report, which looks at November’s data, found that on a year-over-year basis inflation rose 3.1 per cent from November of last year—the same year-over-year increase that was tracked the previous month. November also saw the same month-over-month increase as the October data, with inflation rising 0.1 per cent.

Ian Campbell

PROC study should address ‘politicization of the speakership,’ says former parliamentary counsel

A former House of Commons Clerk called Greg Fergus' decision to appear in a partisan video 'mind-boggling.' The Procedure and House Affairs Committee will now examine the issue.

Ian Campbell

Liberals risk ‘intense criticism’ from Conservatives if pharmacare grows federal deficit, says pollster Bruce Anderson

Recent reports from the Parliamentary Budget Office found that a universal pharmacare program could cost both provincial and federal governments $11.2-billion in its first year, while the federal deficit is already projected to grow to $46.5-billion next year.