Peter Armstrong

Peter Armstrong

U.S.-China summit highlights the 'hypocrisy' of American trade policy, experts say - Washington pursues deals with China while criticizing Ottawa for doing the same

U.S. President Donald Trump rolled out the red carpet for Xi Jinping this week, heralding the Chinese president as a "great leader" while looking to expand or extend a deal both countries reached last year to stave off some tariffs and carve out something of a trade truce. Trump has previously said he’s made "fantastic trade deals" with Beijing and...

Peter Armstrong

Has GDP rebounded?

It's going to be a blockbuster kind of week for the Canadian economy. The deadline to renew CUSMA will (almost assuredly) swoosh by on Wednesday, accompanied by a chorus of commentary and recriminations. Before we get there, we will get the latest GDP numbers for April on Tuesday. The economy has been struggling to find its footing. We experienced back-to-back...

Peter Armstrong

Inflation is still a problem

Welcome to Mind Your Business! Consider this your weekly guide to understanding what’s happening in the worlds of economics, business and finance.

Peter Armstrong

Higher oil prices set to give feds a 'windfall' in next budget

Government building budget on 'conservative' estimates, even as global currents force prices up. Global energy markets continue to reel from the ongoing disruption in the Strait of Hormuz. The price of oil is sitting around $100 US a barrel, but Tuesday's spring economic update used much lower prices to build the budget. For this year, the economic update assumes the...

Peter Armstrong

Inflation rears its ugly head

There's a new cost-of-living crisis unfolding around the world. And it's clear Canada will not be immune. Gas prices are already shocking drivers. But they're just the beginning. Inflation numbers this week will assuredly show the cost of living has sharply increased since the war in Iran began at the end of February.

Peter Armstrong

Exclusive: Carney's pitch to unlock trillions in global investment

"Canada is cool again." PM Carney convenes the biggest investors in the world to an Invest in Canada Summit. CBC News has learned Prime Minister Mark Carney has invited 100 of the world's biggest investors to a summit in Toronto this September. The conference aims to pitch organizations that control trillions of dollars in capital on investing in Canada. The...

Peter Armstrong

The energy crisis has only just begun

An air bubble of about half a billion barrels of oil is set to wreak havoc on global economies. For every day the war in the Middle East drags on, the crisis in energy markets deepens. The price of everything from gas and oil to jet fuel and plastics is rising sharply. That crisis is set to get dramatically worse...

Peter Armstrong

How to get Canada's economy growing again

This week lands between the Bank of Canada's last interest rate decision and next week's GDP report.

Peter Armstrong

What can the PM get done in Australia and India?

It's Sunday night and I'm updating this before the newsletter launches Monday morning. The world is still absorbing the U.S. lead airstrikes on Iran. There are still more unknowns than knowns. Like you, I'm watching and reading and listening to see what the next phase of this will look like. I have a deep, professional distrust of those who say...

Peter Armstrong

Why Donald Trump endorsed Canada's deal with China

Can PM's deal help the U.S. forge its own detente with Xi Jinping? Donald Trump barely shrugged when asked about the deal Prime Minister Mark Carney forged with China this week. The U.S. president said such a deal simply made sense. “Well, that's OK, that's what you should be doing. I mean, it's a good thing for him to sign...

Peter Armstrong

What can Carney get done in China?

Mark Carney is headed to China, where he's set to meet with President Xi Jingping. It will be the first visit to China by a Canadian prime minister since 2017. There is some optimism heading into this meeting. The biggest issues on the table are China's restrictions on Canadian canola products and Canada's tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles. Much of...

Peter Armstrong

Awaiting this week's verdict on a recession

Over the past few months, a single question has loomed over the economic landscape: Is Canada slipping into a recession? As the trade war bit deeper over the summer, the economy stalled. The unemployment rate climbed and economic growth repeatedly dipped into negative territory.

Peter Armstrong

Federal budget charts difficult path out of current crisis — with small margin of error

The 2025 federal budget plots a path for the Canadian economy to emerge from the current crisis. But it also highlights just how deep a hole the economy is in right now and how small the margin for error is as Canada navigates the perils of a trade war. “This budget must be generational in its ambition and serve to...

Peter Armstrong

Can the federal budget reset Canada's economy?

Interest rates can only do so much. So, pressure now turns to the federal budget. By just about every measure, Canada’s economy is stuck in a ditch. Growth has sputtered. The unemployment rate is rising. In normal times, the remedy is clear. The Bank of Canada cuts interest rates and the federal government boosts spending to help businesses and households...

Peter Armstrong

Has Canada dodged a recession?

We will have a much better sense by the end of this week if Canada is going to dodge a recession. GDP numbers for July will come out on Friday. Statistics Canada will also release a preliminary look at the data for August. We know the economy shrank 1.6 per cent in the second quarter of this year (April, May...

Peter Armstrong

The U.S. economy is thriving in spite of tariffs. Will it last?

By just about every indicator, the U.S. economy is holding up remarkably well. When Donald Trump launched his global trade war, economists and markets said his tariff policy would slow the economy, drive up prices and dramatically reduce global trade. And yet, stocks are at all-time highs, the country's employment is strong, its economy is expanding and the expected surge...

Peter Armstrong

How to grow the economy in a crisis

We will keep our eyes firmly focused on the trade landscape again this week. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has promised a "flurry" of trade deals ahead of a July 9 deadline that could see global tariff rates increase sharply. Wednesday's deadline applies to all the countries caught up in the so-called Liberation Day tariffs. So, this particular tranche doesn't...

Peter Armstrong

An update on the housing crisis

We are going to get the latest Canadian real estate numbers this week. It's going to be a regular housing-palooza out there. The stats kick off on Monday when the Canadian Real Estate Association releases the latest sales and price numbers. We will also get housing starts (how many new construction projects have begun) and Statistics Canada's New Home Price...

Peter Armstrong

GDP questions loom as Parliament resumes

The worlds of economics and politics will collide again this week. Parliament is set to resume in a flourish of tradition and grandeur. There will be trumpets and red carpets and a King's speech to start the week. The economic news to wrap the week will be decidedly less celebratory. GDP numbers are going to refocus the conversation on economic...

Peter Armstrong

Can this election reset the Canadian economy?

At the outset of this campaign, I said the election was about a number of things: tariffs and trade and Trump and threats. But at its heart, it was about the economy. Whoever wins this thing will have an incredibly difficult task ahead. Whichever party forms government will have to take immediate steps to grow the economy. I wrote a...

Peter Armstrong

The final week of the election campaign

There's just a week left in this election. This time next Monday, we will be getting ready to vote. At the outset, I wrote about the economic question at the heart of this election. The issue, as I saw it then, was how best to deal with U.S. President Donald Trump. But embedded in that question is a deeper one...

Peter Armstrong

The Bank of Canada's tariff decision

I started writing this newsletter as a way of framing and better understanding how the events of the week ahead were going to shape the conversation. But events are happening at a breakneck speed right now. So the last few editions have been focused on the impact those events are having. But this week, we have the Bank of Canada...

Peter Armstrong

More market turmoil

The hard part about conflict is finding an exit ramp once it starts. It's as true for schoolyard fist fights as it is for global trade wars. As the global order the world spent 70 years building up started to unravel last week, I found myself wondering what the path to de-escalation will look like. Stephen Gordon, an economics professor...

Peter Armstrong

More tariff turmoil

It feels like we've been building to this week. Ever since U.S. President Donald Trump was elected, we've been waiting for a moment when his broad plan about tariffs is put forward. He initially said it would happen on inauguration day, then the first day of February. That was delayed to the 4th of February.

Peter Armstrong

The economic question at the heart of this election

This Canadian election is about a lot of things. It’s about trade and tariffs and threats and sovereignty. It’s about anger and disappointment and frustration. But if you zoom out, it’s about the economy. There are two key questions voters will have to answer for themselves. One is, who is best to stand up to U.S. President Donald Trump...

Peter Armstrong

T-minus one day to tariff deadline

It's going to be another weird week, so hold onto your hats. If you've had a hard time keeping track of all the various tariff threats and deadlines, you are not alone. My colleague Alex Panetta has a handy guide for what threats come due on what dates here. This week, we face the first hurdle. U.S. President Donald Trump...

Peter Armstrong

Navigating chaos with little cushion

Numbers out this week will show just how precarious a footing Canada's economy is on as it braces for a trade war. GDP growth has been meagre at best for a while now. GDP expanded by 0.3 per cent in the third quarter (July, August and September) after rising 0.5 per cent in the first two quarters of the year.

Peter Armstrong

Inflation ahead

It's remarkable how quickly the things we worried about can change. For years now, inflation was the most important thing on the economic landscape. Now, it's tariffs and the threats emanating from the White House. Those tariffs will have a weird impact on inflation.

Peter Armstrong

Turning Canadian politics into policy

On Sunday as many were hunkering down to watch the Super Bowl, Donald Trump launched his latest salvo in the looming trade wars. This time he threatened to impose 25 per cent tariffs on all steel and aluminum entering the U.S. We have almost no other details and we'll see what specifically is done, when it will come into effect...

Peter Armstrong

Trump's trade threats are just the beginning

Canadian businesses and policy makers are still reeling from the whirlwind that came with Donald Trump's threatened tariffs and, on Monday, his 30-day pause. But it's clear — free trade and its proponents are facing a rough road ahead. And though the U.S. president may be the loudest and most existential threat to free trade, he's definitely not alone.

Peter Armstrong

A trade war no one wants

This weekend was a whirlwind. I was among those who didn't believe Donald Trump was going to go ahead with the tariffs. We aren't yet there, but we are one giant step closer. I know the question we all have revolves around how deep this will cut and what part of my pocketbook will feel it first.

Peter Armstrong

How does the Bank of Canada respond to Trump?

The Bank of Canada has a tricky decision to make this week. It's expected to cut interest rates yet again, bringing the key overnight lending rate all the way back to three per cent. The tricky part is in laying out where it goes from here.

Peter Armstrong

Mind Your Business - Trade, Trump and what to expect on tariffs

I wish I had a better sense of how this week is going to go. I'm not alone. For months now, Canada (and the world) has been living under the threat of tariffs that would be a catastrophe. Today, we will see what Donald Trump really means.

Peter Armstrong

What would a trade war actually look like?

Donald Trump is threatening steep tariffs on all goods entering the U.S. from Canada, Mexico and China. They'll be in place until the countries stop the flow of migrants and drugs illegally entering the U.S., Trump said. Mexico and China have threatened to respond in kind. Businesses, economists and policymakers are trying to figure out how much of this is...

Peter Armstrong

Canadian trade survived the first Trump presidency. Here's how it can survive the second

Here we go again. Canadian industries are bracing for chaos, discord and, above all, tariffs. Donald Trump's sweeping presidential election victory this week sets the stage for a series of obstacles to trade between Canada and its biggest trading partner. But for those who spent much of Trump's first term defending Canadian interests in a trade war, there is an...

Peter Armstrong

Bank of Canada says housing affordability is about boosting supply, not lowering interest rates

Canada's real estate market is notoriously unhinged. Home prices are up more than 35 per cent in just four years. Mortgage interest costs are up 30.9 per cent year over year. And rental prices are continually hitting record highs. As inflation comes under control, there is a growing chorus calling on the Bank of Canada to cut interest rates, easing...

Peter Armstrong

Could Red Sea attacks reignite supply chain chaos?

Shipping traffic through the Red Sea has "plummeted" as Houthi militants step up their attacks on vessels in the region. American-led airstrikes have done little to deter the disruption and now the CEO of one of the biggest shipping companies in the world says the disruption will probably last at least a few months.