Éric Grenier

Éric Grenier

Weekly Writ: Why Conservatives should be worried about the byelections - Dismiss byelection results at your peril.

Byelection results are easy to dismiss when they don’t go your way. They’re referendums on the government! They’re safe seats for the incumbent! Turnout is low! Local dynamics are at play! There are some kernels of truth there. But that doesn’t mean the Conservatives shouldn’t be worried about the results of the byelections in Terrebonne, University—Rosedale and Scarborough Southwest, in...

Éric Grenier

Liberals would win 200+ seats if election held today

Just a few days out from the first anniversary of the start of the 2025 election campaign, Mark Carney’s Liberals would likely win well over 200 seats if another election were held today. That’s what The Writ’s new model shows in its inaugural projection. Yes, the vote and seat projection model is finally live!

Éric Grenier

Avi Lewis maintains fundraising dominance with three weeks to go

With less than three weeks to go before the New Democrats choose their next leader, Avi Lewis holds a towering fundraising advantage over his chief rivals, making him the odds-on favourite to win the contest. Filings to Elections Canada show that Lewis has raised $1,229,484 from 10,407 contributors, giving him a greater than two-to-one edge over his nearest competitor, Edmonton...

Éric Grenier

Avi Lewis has wide lead in NDP leadership fundraising

Avi Lewis has raised the most money in the NDP leadership race, suggesting that he is currently the clear front runner to replace Jagmeet Singh when the New Democrats choose their next leader on March 29. Fundraising data published today by Elections Canada, which includes all donations up to December 31, show Lewis raised $778,869, well ahead of his rivals...

Éric Grenier

Byelection benchmarks for Pierre Poilievre

Going into Monday’s federal byelection in the Alberta riding of Battle River–Crowfoot, the only real question is what number Pierre Poilievre will put up. It’s one of the safest Conservative ridings in the country, so it is nearly impossible to imagine that Poilievre will fail to secure the seat that Damien Kurek won with 82.8% of the vote less than...

Éric Grenier

A short history of Battle River–Crowfoot. A look at the riding Pierre Poilievre is hoping will catapult him back into the House of Commons.

On Monday, Prime Minister Mark Carney set the date for the federal byelection in the Alberta riding of Battle River–Crowfoot, which Conservative MP Damien Kurek vacated in order to provide a seat for Pierre Poilievre. There’s little doubt that Poilievre’s bid will be successful when voters go to the polls on August 18 — only one riding in the country...

Éric Grenier

Poilievre sets himself the easiest byelection test — ever

Pierre Poilievre is planning to use the upcoming (yet to be called) byelection in the riding of Battle River–Crowfoot as his springboard back into the House of Commons. The result in this rural Alberta riding is a foregone conclusion — Damien Kurek, who resigned his seat so that Poilievre could fill it, took 82.8% of the vote in the April...

Éric Grenier

And they're off! Where things stand as the race begins.

Earlier today, Prime Minister Mark Carney met the governor general and dissolved the 44th Parliament, setting April 28 as the day that Canadians will be going to the polls. And, unexpectedly, the Liberal leader heads into the campaign as the favourite to win it. He’s not an overwhelming favourite, however. The polls suggest that the Liberals would win the most...

Éric Grenier

Liberal leadership race: Follow the money

Just a quick note on the Liberal leadership race after the publication of the second interim campaign returns on the Elections Canada’s website. It’s the last bit of data we’ll have before the results of the contest are announced on Sunday. The returns include donations up to February 26, so they leave out a little over a week of late-campaign...

Éric Grenier

The map that delivers Poilievre's majority

If the federal election were held today, the Conservatives would likely win somewhere between 195 and 230 seats. But just where would these gains come from? The short answer is: nearly everywhere. But let’s take a deeper look at what the electoral map would probably look like if Canadians were called to the polls this week.

Éric Grenier

Weekly Writ 10/23: Turning points everywhere

Canadian politics might be hitting a turning point this week. Today is supposed to be the day when the big showdown takes place in Ottawa between Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and the members of his Liberal caucus who want him to step down. The rumoured number of MPs who have signed the letter calling for a leadership change seems to...

Éric Grenier

B.C. NDP favoured, but Conservatives could pull off upset

You’d think after over a decade the ghosts of the 2013 B.C. election campaign would be long put to rest. The polls performed well in the 2017 and 2020 provincial elections and the latter ended with confident predictions of an NDP victory — predictions that came true. There’s no way to be very confident today. But the B.C. New Democrats...

Éric Grenier

Weekly Writ 10/16: Trudeau faces his biggest challenge

Over the weekend, multiple news outlets reported on an effort by some members of the Liberal caucus to oust Justin Trudeau as leader of the party. The specific details are a little fuzzy — there may or may not be a physical letter with the signatures of a few dozen MPs on it — but the implications are clear. Trudeau...

Éric Grenier

Election Writ 10/15: Are the B.C. Conservatives falling behind?

With days to go in British Columbia’s provincial election campaign, have the B.C. Conservatives lost their chance to win it? Most polls now suggest the Conservatives will come up short. But not all of them. Polling in the campaign has taken one of two forms: individual polls published by various pollsters at largely irregular intervals, and the Mainstreet Research tracking...

Éric Grenier

Benchmarks for tonight's byelections

Parliament is returning and voters in two key byelections are going to the polls. The results of those contests in Montreal’s LaSalle–Émard–Verdun and Winnipeg’s Elmwood–Transcona could have repercussions on how the next few weeks and months unfold. Plus, the Poll Tracker is back. Today is really the starting pistol for the next federal election. It could be a longer, 13-month...

Éric Grenier

Weekly Writ 9/11: Monday's byelection scenarios

The outcomes of Monday’s two byelections in LaSalle–Émard–Verdun and Elmwood–Transcona could have important repercussions for how the rest of the political year plays out — for all four major parties. That’s one of the reasons why the contests are so fascinating. The Liberals, Conservatives, NDP and Bloc Québécois all have some stakes across the two byelections. The Liberals and Bloc...

Éric Grenier

Sask. Party still favourite to win in October

The next election in Saskatchewan is setting up to be the most competitive contest in more than 20 years. Does that mean that the governing Saskatchewan Party, in power for the last 17 of those years, is in serious danger of seeing its dynasty come to an end? No.

Éric Grenier

New Brunswick still a toss, but could be a Liberal-leaning one

New Brunswick’s scheduled election in October looks too close to call. But that view is a blurred, fuzzy one — because we don’t have much to go on. Polling in this province has been rare and has largely come from one single polling firm. We were treated with another poll from a different pollster this summer, but those results only...

Éric Grenier

B.C. NDP position worsening, but it's still the narrow favourite to win

It wasn’t too long ago that the B.C. New Democrats were poised to win the 2024 provincial election in a landslide. The party was polling well and its chief rival was imploding following a disastrous rebound. The minor Conservative Party was being boosted in the polls, but all that was going to do was split the vote and elect more...

Éric Grenier

Weekly Writ 8/21: Box-checking vs. seat-flipping

Party leaders’ summer tours are like a Rorschach test. Look hard enough and you can see a cunning strategy behind every visit. In reality, though, some visits have less import than others. Take, for example, the recent visits of Pierre Poilievre and Jagmeet Singh to Prince Edward Island.

Éric Grenier

Is Quebec about to flip?

There’s nothing like a surprising poll result to make politicos sit up. A survey published by Abacus Data this past week did just that. The national results were fairly typical, with the Conservatives holding a 20-point lead over the Liberals (43% to 23%). But it was the regional sample in Quebec that got people talking.

Éric Grenier

Weekly Writ 8/7: Why Pierre Poilievre's fundraising edge is different

Like clockwork, the Conservative Party posted another record-breaking fundraising quarter, dwarfing the intake of all of its rivals – combined. With just under $10 million raised between April 1 and June 30, the Conservatives set a new all-time high for a second quarter. The other four parties that file quarterly raised a total of $5.9 million. I’ll get into the...

Éric Grenier

Weekly Writ 7/31: Last chance byelections?

Just a few days after naming their candidate for the riding of Elmwood–Transcona, on Sunday the Liberals went ahead and set the date for two byelections for September 16. In addition to the vote in that Winnipeg riding, a byelection will also be held in Montreal’s LaSalle–Émard–Verdun. Could these byelections be Justin Trudeau’s last chance to right the good ship...

Éric Grenier

One year out (or sooner), Nova Scotia PCs heavily favoured to win

The next election in Nova Scotia is scheduled for July 15, 2025. The province was the last to not have a fixed election date law on the books, and is the only one to set that date for the middle of the summer. Picking the summer as the time to hold elections was an odd choice by Premier Tim Houston...

Éric Grenier

LaSalle–Émard–Verdun: The Liberals' next test

The summer began with a high-stakes byelection that the Liberals lost, sending them into a vortex of self-reflection and internal dissent. What if the summer ends with another one? The Toronto–St. Paul’s byelection went worse than the Liberals could have hoped. They had pulled out all the stops to win it, sending cabinet ministers out to go door-knocking in a...

Éric Grenier

Weekly Writ for July 3: Should Trudeau stay or should he go?

Justin Trudeau’s hold on the leadership of the Liberal Party, following the Conservative victory in the Toronto–St. Paul’s byelection, is shakier than it’s ever been. The prime minister has not given any indication that he is thinking of throwing in the towel, though his response to a question from the CBC’s Heather Hiscox about his future was tepid at best...

Éric Grenier

Weekly Writ for June 26: Another canary in the Liberal coalmine

Well, that escalated slowly. Yes, it wasn’t until just before 4 AM early Tuesday morning that the Conservatives’ Don Stewart finally edged ahead of Leslie Church and the Liberals in the Toronto–St. Paul’s byelection. When Elections Canada finally finished the count — the ballot had 84 candidates on it, making for an interminably long counting process — Stewart had won...

David Coletto, Éric Grenier

Toronto-St. Paul's Byelection: A Swing Big Enough to Wipe Out 55 Liberal Seats in Ontario

This was not any ordinary byelection. The stakes were high. I went to bed thinking the Liberals would hold on, but when I woke up, the Conservatives and Don Stewart won the riding by about 600 votes or a 2-point margin. Toronto-St. Paul’s was one of the safest Liberal seats. We imagine many, if not most, Liberal MPs from Ontario...

Éric Grenier

What to watch in Toronto–St. Paul's

Today’s byelection in Toronto–St. Paul’s is one that would be an easy win for the governing party in normal times. But these aren’t normal times for Justin Trudeau’s Liberals. Carolyn Bennett won this seat in midtown Toronto by a margin of 24 points over the Conservative candidate in the 2021 election, and the Liberals have held this part of the...

Éric Grenier

Weekly Writ for June 19: Are Canadians not in 'decision mode' yet?

On Monday, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau appeared on CBC’s Power and Politics, where host David Cochrane asked Trudeau about his poor standing in the polls as another survey puts the Liberals behind the Conservatives by 20 points. Trudeau was dismissive of the numbers, saying “Canadians aren’t in a decision mode right now”.

Éric Grenier

The State of the Writ, Year 3

Time flies when you’re having fun — and so it’s remarkable that it is already the moment to mark three years since The Writ was launched! Every year at around this time, I take the opportunity to reflect on how this project is going and to share my thoughts, and a few numbers, with readers. I do this exercise publicly...

Éric Grenier

Weekly Writ for June 12: Will climate change be a ballot box issue?

Climate change and the environment have been important issues for several federal election cycles now, but it hasn’t been a decisive issue in any modern campaign. Could that change in 2025? Last evening, I participated as a panelist at an event in Toronto organized by GreenPAC, a non-partisan organization focused on fostering leadership on the environmental file. My fellow panelists...

Éric Grenier

New Brunswick election still a toss-up

New Brunswick’s election is little more than four months away, but the outcome is no easier to predict than it was last year. The polls show Susan Holt’s opposition Liberals and Blaine Higgs’s governing Progressive Conservatives within a few points of one another, with no trend suggesting that public opinion is moving in one direction or the other. Each party...

Éric Grenier

Weekly Writ for June 5: Battleground spotlight on Atlantic Canada

When the polls shifted last summer, nowhere was the movement as dramatic and consequential as in Atlantic Canada. The Liberals were losing support across the country, but it was only in Atlantic Canada that the Liberals went from having a clear lead over the Conservatives to trailing Pierre Poilievre’s party by a wide margin. Hoping to salvage things, and under...

Éric Grenier

Is Trudeau a drag on Crombie? Maybe not

The Ontario Liberals had hopes they could win last week’s provincial byelection in Milton, a riding in the Greater Toronto Area the party should be targeting when Ontarians next go to the polls. They had come close to winning it in 2022 and now with Bonnie Crombie, a former GTA mayor, as leader, the Liberals’ chances of flipping the seat...

Éric Grenier

Weekly Writ for Apr. 24: Battleground spotlight on The 905

With the new electoral map now in force and the numbers of months before the next election countable on our fingers and toes, it’s time to start drilling down on the battlegrounds across the country — starting today with the so-called 905. Periodically on the Weekly Writ, I’ll be doing some ‘battleground spotlights’ that take a look at the current...

Éric Grenier

Weekly Writ for Mar. 27: Alberta NDP leadership race bombshell

Yesterday, the Alberta NDP leadership race was shaken up by the withdrawal of Rakhi Pancholi from the contest and her endorsement of former Calgary mayor Naheed Nenshi. I’ll get into the implications of what this signals for the leadership campaign in a minute, but first let’s delve into some fresh new polling from Abacus Data. The numbers suggest two things...

Éric Grenier

Anthony Housefather's dilemma in Mount Royal

Liberal MP Anthony Housefather says he is in “reflection” about his future with the Liberal Party, even contemplating crossing the floor over to the Conservatives. This comes after nearly the entire Liberal caucus (excluding Housefather) voted in favour of an amended NDP motion on the Israel-Gaza conflict. A lifelong Liberal, Housefather now isn’t sure whether he still has a place...

Éric Grenier

Weekly Writ for Mar. 20: Eby's NDP still on track for big win

With only seven months to go before British Columbia’s election, David Eby’s New Democrats remain in a commanding position, with few prospects for a consolidation of the vote to the right of the party. A poll published by the Angus Reid Institute this weeks shows the B.C. New Democrats holding the support of 43% of decided voters, up one point...

Éric Grenier

Weekly Writ for Mar. 13: Naheed Nenshi is in

So, Naheed Nenshi is making a return to active politics and vying to become the next leader of the Alberta New Democrats. I’ll get into what this means for the Alberta NDP in a bit. But first, a thought on how Nenshi’s return is a nice change of pace from what’s become the latest trend in Canadian politics. Here we...

Éric Grenier

Weekly Writ for Mar. 6: What Durham tells us

The importance of Monday’s federal byelection in Durham is not what the results revealed but rather what they confirmed — namely, that the Conservatives are in a position to win a strong majority government and that the Liberals, unless anything changes, are on track for defeat. As expected, the Conservatives’ Jamil Jivani won the byelection in Durham, a riding in...

Éric Grenier

What to watch in the Durham byelection

There might not be a lot of suspense ahead of today’s Durham byelection. The Conservatives have the riding for 20 years and are very likely to win it again. But as the first real electoral contest to take place since the Conservatives moved decisively ahead of the Liberals in national polling late last summer, the results will be a test...

Éric Grenier

Weekly Writ for Feb. 28: Pharma deal gives Liberals more of the only thing they have left — time

Looks like there won’t be a federal election in 2024 — if it was ever likely that there was going to be one. But yes, the Liberals and New Democrats were able to come to an arrangement on pharmacare that should keep their confidence-and-supply agreement (CASA) going for the foreseeable future. Those of us who were on an election-alert can...

Éric Grenier

Weekly Writ for Feb. 21: The seats that would give Poilievre a majority government

With the kinds of polling numbers we’ve seen over the last few months, Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives are knocking on the door of 200 seats. But it’s a big leap to go from the party’s current caucus of 117 to 200 or more. And while hitting 200 seats would be a psychological threshold of some importance, it otherwise doesn’t mean much...

Éric Grenier

Weekly Writ for Feb. 14: A new polling normal that's not normal at all

A few recent polls have the Conservatives at or above 40% support while the Liberals wallow at or below 25%. It’s become the new normal in national polling. But just how normal is it? One of the reasons the Liberals have been Canada’s “natural governing party” is that it’s been the classic brokerage party in a country with lots of...

Éric Grenier

Weekly Writ for Feb. 7: A deep-dive into Poilievre's fundraising machine

The Conservatives raised a lot of money last year — and especially a lot more than the Liberals. But with only a few very brief exceptions, that has always been the case ever since corporations were prohibited from donating to parties and contribution limits were put in place some 20 years ago.

Éric Grenier

Conservatives come out ahead on new electoral map but don't need the help

Let’s be clear. The new electoral map is probably not going to decide the next election. The polls have shifted so dramatically since the last campaign that a few new ridings here, a couple tweaked boundaries there are not going to make all the difference. At least, if the polling trends hold through to 2025.

Éric Grenier

Weekly Writ for Jan. 24: Which cabinet ministers are in danger of defeat?

Plus the countdown for the next federal byelections is on; what the latest polls are showing; a trailblazer in PEI.

Éric Grenier

It'll be a closer election, but Sask Party remains heavy favourite in 2024

With a little less than 290 days to go before Saskatchewan’s election, the governing Saskatchewan Party looks well-positioned to extend its winning streak to five when the province goes to the polls on October 28. But it could still prove to be the narrowest victory the Sask. Party has had to win since first coming to power in 2007, as...

Éric Grenier

Weekly Writ for Jan. 10: Crisis and opportunity when MPs retire

It’s normal when an election approaches for MPs to start eyeing the exits. Signing on to run for another term of four years is always going to be daunting for some MPs, particularly those who already have a few terms under their belts. It’s all the more daunting when your odds of re-election — or being on the governing side...

Éric Grenier

Weekly Writ for Dec. 20: Taking stock and looking forward

As we prepare to get nestled all snug in our beds for the holiday season, I wanted to take this opportunity, in the last Weekly Writ of the year, to thank you for your support of this little project of mine. I started The Writ in June 2021, and so this is the third time I can look back on...

Éric Grenier

Weekly Writ for Dec. 13: When it comes to Poilievre and Quebec, let's be realistic

There’s been a bit of chatter recently about the Conservatives’ polling gains in Quebec and the possibility that the province is opening up to Pierre Poilievre. It is — but only a little bit. And, after hearing one of the panelists on the Curse of Politics podcast mention the Conservatives potentially winning 20 to 25 seats in Quebec, I think...

Éric Grenier

No clear front runner as New Brunswick nears election year

Next year’s election in New Brunswick is looking like a real nail-biter, with both the Progressive Conservatives under Blaine Higgs and the Liberals under Susan Holt holding some decent cards in their deck. But who will have the better hand on election day?

Éric Grenier

Weekly Writ for Dec. 6: When and where did the polls move?

Looking at how federal polls have shifted in 2023, plus what's changed in Ontario politics in this last week. With the sole exception of a brief period during the pandemic when support for Justin Trudeau’s Liberals surged, the trend lines in the polls were rather flat between September 2019 and June 2023. And then things escalated quickly.

Éric Grenier

Weekly Writ for Nov. 29: What 1st ballot score secures a leadership win?

On Saturday, we’ll find out who will be the next leader of the Ontario Liberal Party. The front runner seems to be Bonnie Crombie, but if she fails to secure a majority of the vote on the first ballot what kind of number will signal she’ll win on the final ballot? The Liberals are using a one-member-one-vote (OMOV) system with...

Éric Grenier

New Golden Horseshoe map no solace for troubled Liberals

The new electoral map in the swathe of ridings running from Durham Region around the City of Toronto and out around to Niagara Falls is a mixed bag for both the Liberals and the Conservatives. Both parties come out ahead in some ridings and further behind in others. At the margins, the map in this part of Ontario might seem...