Between March 4 and 11, 2026, Abacus Data surveyed 1,931 Canadian adults as part of our ongoing federal political tracking. This wave of research captures public opinion almost exactly one year after Mark Carney became Prime Minister and formed a government following his election as Liberal Party leader. It was also conducted after the escalation of conflict in the Middle...
It rarely rates a mention when polling asks “what’s the most important issue”, but only because people thought nothing could be done about it. I’m talking about polarization in politics and by extension, in society more broadly. Have a conversation with friends and acquaintances about the state of the world, and it often doesn’t take long before someone will mention...
NDP MP Lori Idlout became the fourth MP to cross the floor to the governing Liberals during the 45th Parliament, adding more fuel to the debate about the politically controversial practice. NDP interim leader Don Davies said his party believes floor crossers like Idlout should have to “put that decision to the voters”, and most Canadians appear to agree.
When we last reported on the Carney government’s seven national priorities, the story was largely about early alignment. Canadians broadly agreed with the direction of the agenda, but were reserving judgment on delivery. The government had set clear goals. The public was waiting to see results. Now, roughly one year into Mark Carney’s leadership, that early period of orientation is...
Trade negotiations between Canada and the U.S. have restarted, but there appears to be no end in sight to the American tariffs on Canadian steel, aluminum, cars, lumber, copper and more from the administration of U.S. President Donald Trump. According to new data from the non-profit Angus Reid Institute, if half (51%) of Americans had their way, there would be...
One year into Mark Carney’s time as Prime Minister, 61% of Canadians feel the Carney government has brought change compared to the Trudeau government. Indeed, more say Carney’s government feels like the first term of a new government (40%) than the fourth term of a Liberal government (35%). For the most part, Canadians see this change as a positive. Across...
At the beginning of 2025, when Mark Carney formally entered politics, only a minority of Canadians could recognize him. He was known in elite and policy circles, but to most voters he was still more idea than person, more résumé than brand. That matters, because political brands are not built all at once. They form gradually, as people absorb cues...
The ballot trend continues to favour the Liberals as they open up a 13 point advantage over the Conservatives. On the preferred Prime Minister tracking Carney now holds a commanding 35 point advantage. Carney preferred PM advantage hits new high.
A new Liaison Strategies survey reveals a major shift in the city’s political landscape following John Tory’s announcement that he will not seek a return to the mayoralty. In a field without the former mayor, incumbent Olivia Chow has established a commanding 18-point lead over her nearest rival, while Councillor Brad Bradford and potential candidate Michael Ford have emerged as...
Over the past year, one of the more revealing questions in Canadian politics hasn’t simply been who people support, but what kind of leadership they believe the country needs. When voters talk about politics today, they often focus on policy problems like housing, affordability, or economic growth. But underneath those debates is something more psychological. Leadership is not evaluated in...
A new national survey from Liaison Strategies shows the federal Liberals have established a significant 14-point lead over the Conservatives among decided and leaning voters with 44% support. The Weekly Federal Tracker shows the Conservatives in second place at 30%, followed by the NDP at 9%, the Bloc Québécois at 6%, and the People’s Party at 4%. Liaison surveyed a...
Although consumer confidence is holding in marginally positive territory there are some interesting dynamics unfolding over the past four weeks. Forward looking expectations are up but Canadians are feeling the squeeze on job security.
Wide leads in Quebec, Ontario, Atlantic and BC. But the numbers have tightened, a lot, in Alberta and Saskatchewan. PM Carney's travels to market Canada is one reason why. In an election held now, 46% would cast a ballot for the Carney Liberals, and 31% say they would vote for Poilievre’s Conservatives. The Liberals have opened up a large lead...
Between February 20 and 25, 2026, Abacus Data surveyed 1,000 Alberta adults aged 18 and over as part of our Alberta Omnibus survey. This is our third and final release which explores the federal political landscape in Alberta, including approval of the federal government, vote intention, and impressions of key leaders.
Between February 20 and 25, 2026, Abacus Data surveyed 1,000 Alberta adults aged 18 and over as part of our Alberta Omnibus study. This is the second release from that survey. The first examined attitudes toward Alberta independence. In this report, we turn to the broader provincial political landscape, including mood, priorities, leadership evaluations, and vote intention.
A new Liaison Strategies survey reveals that while the Progressive Conservatives maintain a narrow lead in voter intent, opposition leaders and potential Liberal leadership candidates are battling significant name-recognition challenges across the province. "The ballot remains competitive, but the favourability numbers suggest that many voters are still getting to know the alternatives to the current government," said David Valentin, principal...
Less than a year after the 2025 federal election, the minority Liberal government led by Mark Carney continues to strengthen its position in public opinion. As the Prime Minister Carney advances diplomatic initiatives on the international stage and works to stabilize the economic climate at home, the latest Léger data shows a continued rise in both satisfaction and approval ratings...
A new Ipsos poll for Global News finds that, if another federal election were held tomorrow, the Liberal party (44%, +4 pts vs. December 2025) would have a larger lead over the Conservatives (36%, -1 pt vs. December) than they did on Election Day last year. Still lagging behind is the NDP (8%, -1 pt). The Bloc Québécois would garner...
Consistent with Ipsos polling in 2025 for Global News, Mark Carney remains the sole federal party leader with a net positive approval: 58% of Canadians approve (+10 pts vs. just before the 2025 federal election), while 33% disapprove (+3 pts). In contrast, his primary political opponent Pierre Poilievre faces greater disapproval at 48% (-4 pts), compared to 41% (+6 pts)...
A majority (62%) of Canadians believe that MPs should not be allowed to switch political parties after being elected to the House of Commons, according to a new Ipsos poll for Global News. Moreover, if it were to happen in their district, most (69%) would want an immediate by-election. Only 41% agree that they'd be comfortable with their own MP...
Public perceptions about Canada’s global alignment continues to shift. A new Abacus Data survey finds more Canadians still see the United States as Canada’s most important partner today, but confidence in U.S. reliability has eroded, and impressions have softened. At the same time, support for deeper strategic cooperation with the European Union is strong, and nearly half now support the...
Canada’s political weather has shifted, and the barometer is moving decisively in one direction. The Liberals have opened a clear lead, sitting in the mid40s nationally, while the Conservatives trail by roughly ten points. This is in the wake of a few weeks in favour of the Carney Liberals. The gap is even starker on leadership: Mark Carney dominates the...
Between February 18 and 23, 2026, Abacus Data surveyed 1,500 Canadian adults to understand how Canadians view Prime Minister Mark Carney’s approach to dealing with President Donald Trump and how they see the risks and stakes as the 2026 CUSMA joint review approaches. The results point to a striking and potentially underappreciated dynamic. While business leaders and policy insiders have...
A new national survey released today by Liaison Strategies shows the Liberal Party of Canada, led by Prime Minister Mark Carney, holding a double-digit lead. If a federal election were held today, the Liberals would secure 43% (-2) of the decided and leaning vote, maintaining a significant 10-point advantage over the Conservative Party, which stands at 33% (no change). The...
The positive movement in consumer confidence has been primarily driven by perceptions that the Canadian economy will get stronger in the next six months. The proportion of Canadians who believe things will get better has increased from 17 to 26 percent in the past four weeks. This has coincided with a series of trade meetings initiated by Prime Minister Carney.
Between February 18 and 23, 2026, Abacus Data surveyed 1,500 Canadian adults as part of our ongoing federal political tracking. This wave was conducted during a distinct political moment. It follows last week’s high-profile floor crossing in Ottawa, which briefly reshaped parliamentary optics and dominated political coverage. At the same time, it was fielded prior to President Donald Trump’s State...
Prime Minister Mark Carney’s middle-power outreach tour is in India as he looks to continue patching up a relationship that’s frayed in recent years while broadening Canada’s economic horizons in the Indo Pacific. New data from the non-profit Angus Reid Institute in partnership with the Asia Pacific Foundation of Canada finds a majority of Canadians say Carney’s trip to India...
A comprehensive new Liaison Strategies survey reveals that a majority of Ontarians are dissatisfied with the provincial government’s performance across seven major policy areas, ranging from affordability to ethics. The survey found that the Ford government faces its most significant challenges in the areas of housing and the cost of living. Both files currently see a total disapproval rating of...
A new Liaison Strategies of Ontario reveals a tightening provincial race, with the Progressive Conservatives (PCs) and the Ontario Liberal Party (OLP) nearly neck-and-neck among decided and leaning voters. The PCs led by Doug Ford would garner 40% of the decided and leaning vote, followed closely by the Ontario Liberals at 36%. The Ontario NDP sits at 17%, with the Green Party at 5%.
What this research shows is that public transit isn’t a niche issue – it’s foundational to how Canadians think about quality of life. Nearly nine in ten Canadians say transit matters to their communities, and four in five expect the federal government to be an active partner in funding it. What’s striking is the awareness gap: most Canadians didn’t know...
As American President Donald Trump addresses the union this evening, Canadians may have some interest in the chosen topics, which will likely reference the Supreme Court’s recent decision to strike down his tariffs, and even Canada’s heartbreaking losses in the Olympic hockey tournament, both men’s and women’s. If Trump’s speech is anything like his first year, Canadians will likely be...
In a week that featured a focus on US tariffs and an MP defection, last week was not a great week for Pierre Poilievre. He now trails Mark Carney in the preferred PM tracking by 31 points. The Liberals have opened a lead in the Nanos tracking outside of the margin of error for the research: LPC 41, CPC 34, NDP 11.
A new national survey released today by Liaison Strategies reveals that the Liberal Party of Canada, led by Prime Minister Mark Carney, has extended its lead in the federal political landscape. If an election were held today, the Liberals would secure 45% of the decided and leaning vote, holding a commanding 12-point advantage over the Conservative Party, which stands at...
The likelihood of Canada losing either Alberta or Quebec from its federation appears low for now – given that a strong majority of residents in both provinces say they have no interest in the idea – but it certainly has the rest of the country talking, and alive to the potential consequences of separation. New data forming the last of...
This survey gauged the views of Canadians on Canada’s future trade relationship with China. Nanos conducted an RDD dual frame (land- and cell-lines) hybrid telephone and online random survey of 1,009 Canadians, 18 years of age or older, between January 31st and February 4th, 2026, as part of an omnibus survey. The margin of error for this survey is ±3.1percentage...
Nanos Research was retained by the Business Council of Canada to gauge the impressions Canadians on Canada potentially negotiating a renewed trade deal with Mexico and the United States. Nanos conducted an RDD dual frame (land- and cell-lines) hybrid telephone and online random survey of 1,007 Canadians, 18 years of age or older, between February 8th and 16th, 2026 as...
After a positive lift in consumer confidence last week, perceptions remain stable. The proportion of Canadians who believe the economy will get stronger in the next six months is up seven points in four weeks from 18 to 25 per cent to but still remains net negative. Although 25 per cent is an improvement, 39 per cent of Canadians still...
Nanos conducted an RDD dual frame (land- and cell-lines) hybrid telephone and online random survey of 1,009 Canadians, 18 years of age or older, between January 31st and February 4th, 2026 as part of an omnibus survey. The margin of error for this survey is ±3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
Over the past year, Canadians have lived through a steady drumbeat of U.S. tariff threats, economic pressure, and political tension. For some, it fades into the background. For others, it shows up every time they tap their debit card. In our latest research, I wanted to understand not just what people think about trade policy, but how this stretch of...
More than 30 years after the narrowly defeated second Quebec referendum, the separatist movement has been resurrected again on the backs of a resurgent Parti Québécois, who have not governed the province in more than a decade With still much to be decided in the fall provincial race – and when, if ever, the PQ decides “winning conditions” make it...
From January 21 to 28, 2026, Abacus Data surveyed 601 adults living in Nova Scotia. Our latest Nova Scotia release provides a detailed snapshot of the province’s political landscape as Premier Tim Houston and his Progressive Conservative government returns to the legislature and prepares to table their 2026-27 budget, which is widely expected to emphasize spending restraint.
Support for the two frontrunning parties is within the margin of error for the Nanos tracking. Poilievre trails Carney by 29 points on the preferred PM preferences as jobs/the economy and Trump/US relations statistically tied as the top national issues of concern.
Nanos conducted an RDD dual frame (land- and cell-lines) telephone random survey of 1,018 respondents in Canada. This report is based on the four waves of tracking ending February 13th, 2026. The margin of error for a random survey of 1,018 Canadians is ±3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20. The research was commissioned by the Bloomberg and was conducted by Nanos Research.